Grayscale Says Bitcoin Could Catch Up to US Stocks If Fed Holds Rates

Bitcoin has underperformed US stocks amid concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again, but the cryptocurrency could make up that gap if no further hike materializes, Grayscale said.

Jack Pandl, Grayscale's head of research, wrote in a June 23 report that his base-case scenario is for the Fed not to raise rates. In that case, Bitcoin's price could catch up with the gains in US equities.

The report said US stocks have risen about 9% since late February, when the Iran war began, while Bitcoin has fallen 1%. Gold prices have also dropped about 20% over the same period.

Pandl cited concerns over monetary tightening as a key reason for the relative weakness in Bitcoin and gold. Over the past several months, the market's outlook for one-year interest rates has risen by about 60 basis points, and about half of Fed officials believe a rate increase in 2026 could be appropriate. The European Central Bank has already raised rates.

Bitcoin and gold are monetary assets that do not pay interest, he added. As real interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding them increases, which can weigh on demand.