Analysis: Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed as Halving Cycle Speeds Up

Bitcoin may have already passed the low point of this cycle, according to a market analysis.

CoinDesk reported on June 29 that Jan3 Chief Executive Officer Samson Mow, a prominent Bitcoin bull, argued that Bitcoin has already bottomed and that the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated.

Bitcoin reached a record high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, Mow said. Setting a new all-time high before the halving suggests the cycle has shifted ahead of its historical pattern.

Some investors still expect the bottom to form several months later based on the past four-year cycle. But because Bitcoin broke to a record before the halving, it is reasonable to conclude that the cycle has sped up, he added.

Views on the market bottom remain divided.

CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole said Bitcoin's 50-week and 100-week moving averages could form a so-called bear cross. Because that signal has appeared near market bottoms in the past, further declines may be limited, he said.

By contrast, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said Bitcoin will likely bottom near $55,000 between August and October. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes took a more bearish view, saying the token could fall to $40,000 within the next six months.

CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten also said Bitcoin could test the $50,000 to $54,000 range, citing the 200-week moving average, with the token potentially falling more than 15% from current levels.