TD Cowen Says CLARITY Act Passage This Year Is Uncertain, Sees Pre-November Approval as Difficult

TD Cowen took a cautious view on the prospects for the CLARITY Act, a US digital-asset market structure bill, passing this year.

Jaret Seiberg, a managing director in TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, wrote in a report that passage of the CLARITY Act before the November midterm elections is "far from certain," The Block reported on June 29.

Seiberg expects the Senate to begin considering the bill in the week of July 13. But if the House does not act by July 24, before the August recess, the chances of passage this year could drop sharply, he wrote.

The biggest variable is President Donald Trump's position. Democrats are expected to introduce a series of amendments to pressure Republicans, and Republicans will only be willing to take that political risk if they are confident Trump will ultimately sign the bill.

Ethics rules remain a key sticking point. Democrats want provisions that would bar public officials and their families from owning crypto business interests, and the restrictions would also apply to the president. Seiberg said the stance of some moderate Republicans remains unclear, making it difficult to be certain such amendments would be defeated.

Concerns from law enforcement agencies also remain unresolved. US law enforcement agencies recently told the White House that provisions in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, or BRCA, designed to protect non-custodial blockchain developers could create loopholes in efforts to combat illegal activity such as money laundering.

Seiberg said provisions allowing stablecoins to pay interest are unlikely to be revised. Banks are therefore expected to maintain their opposition, though the crypto industry appears to believe the bill could still pass despite that resistance.

Galaxy Digital previously lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act's chances of passing in 2026 to 50% from 60%, citing delays in the Senate schedule. JPMorgan has also said the odds of the bill passing this year are below 50%.