Analysis: US Bitcoin Holdings Haven’t Yet Signaled the Next Bull Market
Summary
- US institutions' Bitcoin holdings have yet to show a clear uptrend, suggesting a full-fledged bull market may still be some time away.
- At present, US institutions' Bitcoin holdings are not showing signs of turning higher relative to overseas institutions, differing from the pattern seen at the start of past bull markets.
- A renewed increase in US institutions' share of Bitcoin holdings could serve as an early signal of a new bull market.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
US institutional Bitcoin holdings have yet to show a clear uptrend, suggesting a full-fledged bull market may still be some time away.
CryptoQuant contributor Crypto SunMoon wrote on July 30 that, historically, Bitcoin bull markets have unfolded after Bitcoin holdings at US-based crypto custodians began to show relative strength versus those held by institutions outside the US.
In this context, US-based custodians include exchanges, digital-asset managers and crypto banks. When US institutions start accumulating Bitcoin aggressively, new capital tends to flow into the broader market, helping to launch a bull run.
That pattern has yet to emerge. Bitcoin holdings at US institutions have not shown a clear upward turn relative to overseas institutions, diverging from the setup seen at the start of past bull markets.
The lack of relative strength in US Bitcoin holdings suggests the current rangebound trading could continue for a while before the next bull market begins.
Still, a renewed increase in the share of Bitcoin held by US institutions could be an early signal of a new bull market.
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.