Active Bitcoin Traders Face Average 20% Loss as Cycle Bottom Remains Elusive

Bitcoin has fallen below the average cost basis of active traders, pushing the market into a broader loss zone. Even so, the current drawdown does not yet suggest this cycle has reached its bottom when measured against prior bear-market lows.

Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor, wrote in a post on X on July 4 that active investors — defined as traders who have been transacting heavily in the recent market — bought Bitcoin at an average price of about $76,700. That leaves active Bitcoin traders with an average unrealized loss of 20%.

He said it is still too early to call a bottom based on the current level of losses. In previous bear markets, average losses for active investors widened to 40% to 50%. A 20% drawdown is significant, but it does not match the level of undervaluation seen at past market bottoms.

Darkfost also said that in May, when Bitcoin rebounded to the average cost basis of active investors, many traders chose to leave the market at break-even. That price level then acted as resistance.

He added that despite inflows from institutional investors and spot exchange-traded funds, Bitcoin has so far remained broadly in line with its historical cycle pattern. Still, this cycle could rebound without first falling into the 40% to 50% loss range seen in the past.