Americans Lead Polymarket Political Betting With $571 Million Despite US Ban

Americans placed more political bets on Polymarket than users in any other country over the past year, even though the prediction-market platform bars US users.

CoinDesk reported on July 5 that on-chain analytics firm Allium said in a recent report that traders linked to US wallets recorded $571 million of transactions in Polymarket’s political markets over the past 12 months. That topped Hong Kong’s $422 million, making the US the largest market by country.

Polymarket blocks US users based on IP addresses. Allium said the restrictions have little practical effect because the platform operates on blockchain infrastructure. Anyone with a crypto wallet and stablecoins can trade without a bank or broker, and it is difficult to prevent access if users mask their location with a VPN. The firm added that it inferred countries from wallets’ on-chain behavior rather than IP addresses, meaning VPN use would not conceal whether a wallet was tied to the US.

US users also showed distinct betting patterns. Allium said geopolitical bets accounted for 46% of trading by US wallets, well above the platform-wide average of 36%. Election-related bets made up 16% for US wallets, half the overall average of 32%. Five of the top 12 markets among US users were tied to bets on war involving Iran. The largest single market by trading volume asked whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy would wear a suit, reaching $20.8 million.

Allium said regulated US platforms such as Kalshi, along with Polymarket’s legal US service, are limited to areas such as economic indicators, interest-rate decisions and elections. As a result, demand for markets tied to regime change or a ceasefire has flowed to offshore platforms. Blocking access has not stopped Americans from participating and instead shifted demand to markets outside US regulation.