Bitcoin May Drop to $38,000-$39,000 if Past Bear Markets Repeat
Suehyeon Lee
Summary
- NYDIG said Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $38,000-$39,000 this year if it follows a pattern similar to past bear markets.
- NYDIG said Bitcoin's 2025-2026 decline is increasingly resembling the four-year correction cycles seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022, raising the possibility that it could form this cycle's bottom before the end of this year.
- Bitcoin is currently down nearly 50% from its record high of about $126,000, and NYDIG added that it has posted weaker returns this year than major assets including US Treasuries, silver and the Swiss franc.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 to $39,000 this year if it follows a pattern similar to past bear markets.
In a recent report, digital-asset financial services firm NYDIG said Bitcoin's 2025-2026 decline is increasingly resembling the four-year correction cycles seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
If the current selloff matches the depth and duration of previous bear markets, Bitcoin could bottom near $38,000 to $39,000 in this cycle before the end of the year, the firm wrote.
Bitcoin is currently down nearly 50% from its record high of about $126,000 reached in October last year.
NYDIG added that Bitcoin has underperformed major assets this year, including US Treasuries, silver and the Swiss franc.
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.