Robinhood Prediction-Market Revenue to Top Crypto in Second Quarter, Analysts Say

Robinhood Markets Inc.'s prediction-markets business may generate more revenue than its cryptocurrency trading unit as soon as the second quarter, according to Bernstein and Piper Sandler analysts.

Bernstein and Piper Sandler expect Robinhood's second-quarter prediction-market revenue to surpass its crypto trading revenue, Bloomberg reported on July 21.

"The second quarter could be the first quarter where prediction markets surpass crypto as a revenue line item," Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote in a client note. He raised his price target on Robinhood to $160 from $130, reflecting new market opportunities. The new target is among the highest on Wall Street.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley also projects prediction-market revenue will exceed crypto trading revenue in the second quarter and in the remaining two quarters of this year.

Crypto trading has weakened as Bitcoin prices have fallen recently, while investor interest in prediction markets has surged around the World Cup. Major platforms including Robinhood, Coinbase Global Inc. and Gemini are also moving to expand into prediction markets.

Chhugani wrote that prediction-market trading may cool temporarily after the World Cup ends, but a longer-term structural shift in trading markets is underway. He projects Robinhood's prediction-market revenue will climb to $1.7 billion by 2028.

Bernstein estimates new businesses including prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Chain will account for 18% of Robinhood's total revenue in 2027 and 23% in 2028.

Robinhood is scheduled to report second-quarter results on July 29. Bloomberg-compiled estimates show second-quarter revenue will rise 28% from a year earlier, while adjusted profit will increase about 4%.