Analysis: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Turns Lower, Signaling Start of Second Rally

Bitcoin long-term holders, or LTHs, have begun reducing their holdings, a shift that may signal the start of a new bull phase, according to an analysis.

CryptoQuant contributor CW8900 wrote on Aug. 4 that signs of a Bitcoin rally are emerging, with changes in long-term holder supply following patterns seen in past bull markets.

He defined a bull market as a period when whale investors distribute Bitcoin bought at lower prices to retail investors as prices climb.

In past cycles, a first rally took shape as long-term holders sold part of the Bitcoin they had accumulated. That was followed by a correction, during which they bought aggressively again before a second rally unfolded. The second rally produced larger gains than the first, and the cycle ended after long-term holder holdings fell sharply.

In the current cycle, the first rally ran from January 2023 to December 2025, with long-term holders alternating between buying and selling during that period. In the subsequent downturn, they sharply increased their holdings by buying far more than they sold.

More recently, growth in long-term holder supply has stopped and turned into a decline. Based on past cycles, CW interpreted that shift as a signal that a second rally is beginning.

He wrote that the second rally began eight months after the first rally in the 2013 cycle, 17 months later in 2017 and 16 months later in 2021. In the current cycle, however, 31 months have passed since the first rally, pointing to a different pattern from earlier cycles.

CW8900 attributed the delay to the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, inflows from institutional investors and continued buying by new whale investors.

Still, he wrote that long-term holders now hold more Bitcoin than at any point in history, and their supply has started to decline. That is a key signal suggesting Bitcoin's second rally is starting.