Summary
- Bitcoin has outperformed the stock market over the past 14 years, but an analysis said that edge may break down this year.
- The Bitcoin-to-S&P 500 ratio has, for the first time, moved decisively above its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), and recent strength in U.S. equities could disrupt that trend.
- If the premise that Bitcoin delivers higher returns than stocks weakens, the store of value narrative and optimism about the next bull market could also be shaken.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin’s long streak of outperforming the stock market over the past 14 years may come under threat this year, according to an analysis.
CoinDesk reported on August 5 that the Bitcoin-to-S&P 500 ratio has moved decisively above its 200-week simple moving average for the first time on record. The ratio refers to the amount of Bitcoin needed to buy the S&P 500 index.
CoinDesk said the ratio had fallen steadily since 2010. In 2012, it took 300 Bitcoin to buy the S&P 500 index. Now, 0.12 Bitcoin is enough.
The recent strength in U.S. equities, however, could upend that trend. CoinDesk said there have been past periods when U.S. stocks temporarily outperformed Bitcoin, but this is the first time the chart has broken above the 200-week SMA.
A reversal in that trend could also darken Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. If the premise that Bitcoin consistently generates higher returns than stocks starts to weaken, CoinDesk wrote, the narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value could deteriorate. Optimism that Bitcoin will surge in the next bull market could also falter.
Uk Jin
wook9629@bloomingbit.ioH3LLO, World! I am Uk Jin.