Bitcoin Stalls at $64,000 as Analysts See Slow Bottom Formation

Bitcoin remained stuck near $64,000 with little sign of a breakout, as multiple market research firms said the cryptocurrency may be forming a bottom through seller exhaustion rather than a sharp washout.

The Block reported on August 5 that Bitcoin was little changed around $64,000 on August 4 even as U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $211.5 million in net inflows and the S&P 500 rose to a record 7,737. Spot Ether ETFs drew another $53.8 million that day.

Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at market maker Wintermute, said the marginal buyer in the spot market is not simply a directional long. For the rebound narrative to remain intact, Bitcoin needs to break decisively above $65,000 in the near term.

Glassnode described Bitcoin's stagnation as the market's central puzzle this week. While global equities climbed to record highs, Bitcoin barely moved and lagged the S&P 500 by more than four percentage points. The firm also said there was no meaningful selling pressure in the spot market even after 594 Bitcoin, worth about $38 million, was stolen from a Coldcard hardware wallet on July 31. In the three days after the theft, about 119,000 Bitcoin came out of long dormancy, but the coins were transferred to new cold storage rather than exchanges.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, said Bitcoin's seven-day active supply climbed to about 890,000 Bitcoin after the incident, the highest reading of 2026. Such spikes have historically tended to cluster around short-term tops or bottoms.

Signs of a bottom are gradually building. Glassnode's sell-side exhaustion indicator has dropped to the lowest level of this cycle and entered the range where all previous bottoms were formed. Bitfinex analysts said about 155,000 Bitcoin has been accumulated between $62,000 and $65,000, creating the largest concentration of on-chain cost basis. As of August 2, 54.6% of total supply was in profit, leaving the average holder effectively at breakeven, a condition that has historically signaled a bottom rather than a cycle breakdown.

Demand, however, remains weak. Glassnode said the institutions that led demand over the past two years, including U.S. spot ETFs and corporate treasury buyers, reduced holdings over the past quarter. In June alone, they were net sellers of about 65,800 Bitcoin, marking the largest monthly net outflow on record.

The options market has also backed away from directional bets. Glassnode said call buying has faded, pushing upside implied volatility down to about 23%, a record low. Wintermute estimated Bitcoin's one-day straddle implied move at 1.01% for Wednesday expiry, implying a trading range of $63,454 to $64,749.

Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said easing geopolitical risks, fading expectations of interest-rate increases and solid corporate earnings are supporting risk appetite. Focus has now shifted to the U.S. jobs report. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September has fallen to about 60% from 100% just before last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.