Galaxy Cuts 2026 Odds of Clarity Act Passage to 10%

Skepticism is rising over the Clarity Act's chances of passing this year, a key issue for the digital-asset industry in 2026.

Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn cut the probability of the bill's passage this year to 10%, Cointelegraph reported on August 15, citing a post on X.

Thorn said the U.S. Senate would have only a two- to three-week window to act on the bill after reconvening on September 14. If lawmakers do not move quickly to a procedural vote once they return to Washington, the measure would effectively need to consume the rest of the session to pass.

Disagreements remain among politicians and the financial industry over the legislation. The main sticking points include ethics rules to limit digital-asset-related conflicts of interest for government officials, whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay rewards or interest, and provisions protecting developers.

Galaxy has repeatedly lowered its estimate for the bill's odds of passing this year. It projected a 75% chance on May 22, cut that to 60% on June 6 and 50% on June 26, and has now lowered the figure to 10%.