Bitcoin at $1 Million by 2030 Is Mathematically Impossible, 10x Research Says

A projection that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030 is realistically impossible, according to an analysis cited by Cointelegraph on August 15.

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said in an interview that a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 is “mathematically impossible.”

As of 10:40 p.m., Bitcoin was trading at $62,976, up 0.55% from a day earlier, according to CoinMarketCap. To reach $1 million, the token would need to climb more than 15-fold from its current level.

Thielen estimated that such a move would require about $15 trillion of additional inflows over the next four years. That would amount to roughly 25% of the total value of the U.S. stock market. Over the past 15 years, about $1 trillion of inflows helped lift Bitcoin’s market capitalization to around $1 trillion. Driving the price materially higher from here would require capital in the trillions of dollars.

That is why 10x Research is less bullish than some of the market’s more optimistic forecasters. Their thesis is mathematically unrealistic once the scale of money required is taken into account.

Thielen also said Bitcoin may find it harder to deliver gains on the scale of past rallies as its market capitalization grows. With the asset now much larger, far more capital is needed to push prices higher. For that reason, he said, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to set a new all-time high next year. He added that even a return to $100,000 would be a significant achievement.