Solana Policy Institute Sees 10% Odds of CLARITY Act Passing Before November Midterms

The CLARITY Act, a US crypto market-structure bill, has only a 10% chance of passing before the November midterm elections, The Block reported.

Miller Whitehouse-Levine, chief executive officer of the Solana Policy Institute, gave that estimate at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026 on August 18 when asked about the bill’s prospects before the midterms.

The bill is "stuck in the purgatory of the August recess," he said. The Senate has been discussing the measure for more than a year, and the less time remains in this session of Congress, the harder it becomes to move it through.

The US Senate is set to hold a procedural vote on September 15 to begin consideration of the CLARITY Act. Whitehouse-Levine said that vote would be only the first of several steps required to advance the bill. "I’m hopeful, but I’m looking at the odds realistically," he added.

Prediction markets are also showing fading expectations for the bill’s passage. On Polymarket, the odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year stand at 21%. Trading volume in that market has exceeded $7 million. On Kalshi, the probability is 23%, down sharply from about 50% a month ago.

Whitehouse-Levine said the growing number of stakeholders entering the debate is also making passage more difficult. Banks continue to object to provisions on stablecoin rewards, while the securities and derivatives industries are watching clauses that could affect their businesses.

"New stakeholders are entering the debate because they recognize that the CLARITY Act could actually move," he said. "The more stakeholders there are, the harder it always is to reach consensus."

He also cited the political controversy surrounding President Donald Trump’s crypto businesses as a factor complicating negotiations with Democrats. If the bill does not pass, the tens of thousands of hours Congress and congressional staff have spent on it over the past year would effectively become sunk costs, he said.

As the chances of congressional action diminish, regulators need to move first, Whitehouse-Levine said. "Expectations that Congress can pass the bill are declining, so I hope regulators move quickly," he said. "We can’t afford to keep waiting for Congress."

The US Securities and Exchange Commission recently proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, including exemptions from registration requirements for some digital assets. The Solana Policy Institute said it plans to focus on exemptions that could expand token-based fundraising and on-chain trading of securities and derivatives in the US.