Bitcoin Enters Early Bull Market, but Needs Break Above $83,000 for Confirmation

Bitcoin has entered the early stages of a new bull market, but it must break above its 365-day moving average at $83,000 to confirm the trend, according to CryptoQuant.

The Block reported on Aug. 27 that CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno wrote in a report that Bitcoin bull markets have historically begun when the price breaks above the 365-day moving average, while bear markets have started when it falls below that level. A decisive move above $83,000 would confirm a new bull market. Until then, the level may act as initial resistance and leave room for a pullback.

Bitcoin has surged more than 25% since early last week and briefly topped $81,000 this week. CryptoQuant pointed to two macro drivers behind the rally: the US Treasury's plan to double long-term bond purchases to at least $4 billion per operation starting Sept. 9, and comments from President Donald Trump suggesting the US government could buy Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant's Bull Score also jumped from 30 to 80 in a week, the highest reading since Oct. 6, 2025, when Bitcoin was trading around $124,000. Eight of 10 on-chain, market and valuation indicators are signaling bullish conditions, while spot demand is posting its fastest monthly growth since late December 2025. CryptoQuant said spot and futures demand are expanding at the same time for the first time since Bitcoin broke to a record high in early October 2025, calling it a sign of real spot accumulation and the return of leverage.

Even so, signs of short-term overheating are building. Traders' unrealized profit margins rose to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025. CryptoQuant said similar profit levels in the past prompted profit-taking and created downward pressure. Short-term holders realized $1.2 billion in profits between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22, including $614 million on Aug. 20 alone, the largest single-day profit-taking total.

Exchange inflows also surged. Bitcoin inflows to exchanges reached about 53,000 BTC, the highest since June 5. Ethereum inflows climbed to about 1.7 million ETH, while XRP inflows reached about 460 million XRP, the highest levels since June 5 and February 2026, respectively. CryptoQuant said a sharp rise in exchange inflows after a rapid rebound points to distribution, profit-taking and hedging activity, while increasing the supply immediately available for sale.