Bitcoin Rebounds to $77,600, but September Seasonality Points to Further Weakness

Bitcoin rebounded after briefly sliding to the $76,000 level, but a seasonally weak September and slowing spot demand are raising the risk of another correction.

CoinDesk reported on September 3 that Bitcoin traded above $77,600 in morning trading, up about 1.5% from 24 hours earlier. It had earlier fallen as low as $76,400 in late US trading.

Major altcoins also mostly rebounded. XRP led gains, rising about 3% to $1.36. BNB and Solana each added about 2%, trading near $692 and $100, respectively. Tron rose about 1% to $0.33, while Hyperliquid was little changed near $82. Ether underperformed, staying below $2,400.

On a weekly basis, however, weakness still dominates. Over the past seven days, Ether has fallen about 4%, while Tron and XRP are each down about 3%. Bitcoin has slipped about 1%. Among major cryptocurrencies, only Zcash and HYPE remain higher for the week.

Bitfinex identified $76,350 as a key support level for Bitcoin. That price represents the average on-chain cost basis of currently active investors. When Bitcoin came within about $50 of that level, buying interest emerged. The exchange said the market has recently been absorbing breakeven selling from investors who bought Bitcoin in February and March around that range.

September seasonality remains another headwind. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted an average September return of -2.95%, Bitfinex wrote, warning of a possible correction in the coming weeks. Even so, it said August's upward momentum is still carrying over, suggesting the longer-term uptrend could remain intact even if prices pull back during the month.

The macroeconomic backdrop is also weighing on Bitcoin. International oil prices surged after US attacks on Iran resumed near the Strait of Hormuz, reviving inflation concerns. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury climbed above 4.8%, marking its highest close since 2023. The dollar index also approached 100.

Spot demand has yet to show a clear recovery. Over the past week, major traceable entities moved about 3,700 Bitcoin to exchanges, while spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $236 million in outflows. Stablecoin supply, which had risen steadily during August's rally, has also stalled at about $310 billion.

Nikolai Sondergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen, said that combination shows the current rebound is not yet being supported by consistent spot inflows.

The market is now watching the US nonfarm payrolls report due on September 4. A weaker-than-expected reading could reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase this month, potentially allowing Bitcoin to test $80,000 again. In the options market, traders are also positioning for downside risk in the $68,000 to $75,000 range between the jobs report and the September 11 release of the consumer price index.