Goldman Sachs Says Oil Could Hit $120 if Middle East Crude Shipping Disruptions Worsen

Goldman Sachs said global oil prices could climb to $120 a barrel if attacks on ships in the Middle East intensify.

Bloomberg reported on September 7 that Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview that recent developments show a substantial risk that disruptions to crude transport could become broader and more severe.

Global oil prices have risen to their highest since July 2025 as the U.S. and Iran confront each other over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. recently attacked an Iranian oil tanker, and Iran declared a new restricted zone on the outer edge of the strait. The U.S. Navy is blockading Iranian ports while escorting ships from other oil-producing countries.

Goldman Sachs said oil could rise to $120 a barrel in an upside scenario where Middle East crude shipping disruptions worsen. By contrast, Brent crude could fall to $80 a barrel if regional crude exports return to normal. Brent is currently trading around $97 a barrel.

The bank also proposed a strategy for investors looking to hedge geopolitical risk by betting on gains in natural gas and refined products rather than crude. After more than six months of war, gains in natural gas and oil-product prices have outpaced crude. Diesel, an industrial fuel, has more than doubled this year.

Struyven said he still sees considerable room for further gains in crude prices, but recommends long positions in global natural gas and refined products as a hedge against geopolitical risk. Supply shocks are having a bigger impact on those markets than on crude.

He added that China is likely to help stabilize the crude market by cutting oil imports in response to higher prices. But Goldman Sachs said China is not providing the same buffer in natural gas and refined-products markets.