[Analysis] Bitcoin Medium-Term Structure Improves, but Reclaiming $80,000-$81,000 Is Key to Confirming Bullish Trend

Bitcoin is technically building a stronger medium-term uptrend, but a move back above $80,000 to $81,000 and a recovery in spot buying will be the key conditions for confirming further gains, according to an analysis.

On Sept. 8, CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote that Bitcoin’s medium-term structure remains positive, but the market has not yet fully entered a rally driven by spot demand.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded net inflows for three straight weeks, signaling continued institutional buying. By contrast, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand remains negative, suggesting it is still too early to conclude that broader spot demand has begun a full recovery.

Supply flowing to exchanges was also flagged as an overhang. Roughly 2,487 Bitcoin, worth about $197 million, recently moved from whale wallets to exchanges, while Binance’s Bitcoin holdings remain around 685,000 to 687,000 Bitcoin. The analysis said that still leaves substantial supply that could turn into future selling.

Leverage risks also persist in derivatives markets. Binance’s long-short ratio stands at about 0.917, indicating a short bias, while Bitcoin open interest is about $8.5 billion. With spot demand still weak, elevated leverage could trigger sharp liquidations.

Technical signals, however, are improving. Bitcoin has formed a golden cross and is trading above its 50-week exponential moving average. Its MVRV Z-score is also nearing its 365-day moving average.

XWIN Research Japan said the key conditions for confirming a bullish trend will be whether Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 to $81,000, forms a higher high than before, and sees spot demand indicators turn positive at the same time.