[Analysis] Bitcoin May Tumble to $10,000 if Stocks Correct 20%, McGlone Says

Bitcoin could fall as low as $10,000 if an extreme bear market takes hold, Bloomberg Intelligence said.

Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence's senior commodity strategist, wrote on Sept. 14 that Bitcoin is a highly volatile and speculative digital asset with a strong correlation to the stock market. A roughly 20% drop in the S&P 500, followed by a period of staying at that level, could be enough to send Bitcoin toward $10,000.

McGlone cited resistance near $80,000, expectations for interest-rate increases and elevated U.S. stock valuations as factors that raise the risk of a decline in Bitcoin. Bitcoin has recently faced resistance around $80,000 during its rebound, while federal funds futures one year out are pricing in about 70 basis points of rate hikes. The S&P 500 also remains well above its 200-week moving average.

He also highlighted Bitcoin's strong correlation with U.S. equities. Over the past five years, Bitcoin's returns have generally been similar to those of the S&P 500, but its volatility has been about three times greater, according to McGlone. That suggests Bitcoin offers limited appeal on a risk-adjusted return basis.