Bitcoin Closes Above 50-Week Moving Average for First Time in 45 Weeks, Signaling Bear Market May Be Over

Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average on a weekly basis for the first time in 45 weeks, a move that suggests the bear market may be ending and a new uptrend could be starting.

CoinDesk reported on September 21 that Bitcoin rose about 6% in the week ended September 20, finishing above its 50-week moving average. Its gain over the past 35 days has expanded to about 29%, with the cryptocurrency now trading around $81,000.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, said the breakout could be an important signal that Bitcoin's bearish phase has ended. The key point, he said, is that Bitcoin did not merely move above the average intraday but actually closed the week above it.

The 50-week moving average reflects Bitcoin's weekly closing prices over roughly the past year and is used to gauge the long-term trend. In bull markets, prices generally trade above that level. In prolonged downturns, Bitcoin has often failed to reclaim the line even during rebounds.

Galaxy's analysis of Bitcoin's major bear markets since 2011 found 13 instances in which the weekly chart moved back above the 50-week moving average. In 11 of those cases, Bitcoin did not fall below its previous low afterward.

After the 2011 crash, Bitcoin recovered the 50-week moving average in January 2012 and climbed from about $2 to roughly $1,200 by late 2013. After the 2014-2015 bear market, it broke above the line again in October 2015, did not revisit its prior low and went on to rise to about $20,000 in 2017.

A similar pattern appeared later. After the 2018 collapse, Bitcoin regained the 50-week moving average in May 2019 and later climbed above $69,000 in November 2021. After the 2022 low, it broke above the line in March 2023 and traded above it for more than two years, eventually rising to about $126,000 in October 2025.

Still, a move above the 50-week moving average has not always led to a sustained bullish reversal. In December 2021 and March 2022, Bitcoin briefly recovered the line before falling again and sliding to around $16,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading at about $81,450, while the 50-week moving average stands near $78,115. Based on past patterns, CoinDesk said the recent bear-market bottom may have formed near $60,000. Whether Bitcoin can remain above the 50-week moving average in the coming weeks will be the key factor in determining whether the uptrend can continue.