William Blair Maintains Outperform Ratings on Coinbase, Circle

William Blair Maintains Outperform Ratings on Coinbase, Circle

William Blair maintained its bullish stance on Coinbase and Circle, citing growth potential from regulatory changes and business diversification.

CoinDesk reported on Sept. 23 that William Blair reiterated its Outperform ratings on Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) in a recent report.

William Blair said Coinbase shares have risen 31% since July 14, but still offer an attractive entry point despite weak spot trading volumes.

The firm said regulatory overhaul led by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could accelerate after the U.S. Senate failed to move forward with the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill. It said the SEC's recent exemption for tokenized stock trading could also help lift investor sentiment.

William Blair, however, lowered its profit outlook. The firm cut its 2026 EBITDA estimate for Coinbase by 11% to $810 million. It broadly maintained its 2027 and 2028 forecasts, suggesting earnings estimates may be nearing a trough.

It also pointed to gains in Bitcoin, expanded crypto-backed lending and growth in the tokenized real-world asset, or RWA, market as factors that could support an earnings recovery. The tokenized RWA market has expanded to $39 billion recently from $26 billion at the end of last year.

William Blair also highlighted Coinbase's business diversification. Beyond spot trading, the company is expanding into derivatives for institutional and retail clients, as well as prediction markets, creating new sources of revenue.

Its retail derivatives business generated annualized revenue of about $200 million in the first quarter. Its prediction market business grew to $100 million in the second quarter. Combined, the two businesses account for about 6% of expected revenue this year and are relatively less tied to spot trading volumes.

For Circle, William Blair said growth in USDC circulation will be the key driver of the stock going forward. Circle shares have climbed 52% since Bitcoin's July 1 low.

The firm said USDC's market capitalization could expand with a lag as Bitcoin extends its rally. Threats from competing stablecoins appear limited. Over the long term, William Blair said Circle's valuation will depend more on building a global stablecoin payments and trading network than on returns from managing reserve assets.

It also said delays to the CLARITY Act have reduced legislative regulatory risk around stablecoin rewards for now. The SEC's exemption for tokenized stock trading and broader use of crypto collateral should also support growth in the related market.