[Analysis] Bitcoin Breaks From Past Four-Year Cycles, Making Another Sharp Drop Less Likely
Summary
- On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said Bitcoin is showing a different pattern from past four-year bear market cycles.
- This time, Bitcoin has continued to rebound after falling about 30% from its peak, indicating a more limited correction than in previous cycles.
- Glassnode said the chances of a late plunge to levels seen in past bear markets are diminishing over time, though the possibility of further declines has not disappeared entirely.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen less than it did in past bear markets, suggesting the traditional four-year cycle theory is not playing out in this market.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode wrote on September 23 that Bitcoin's recent price action looks markedly different from the previous three bear markets. In earlier downturns, declines at a comparable stage were more than twice as deep as they are now, with only a few weeks left before the market bottomed.
This time, by contrast, Bitcoin has continued to rebound after falling about 30% from its peak. That indicates the price correction has been relatively limited compared with past cycles.
Glassnode added that, as time passes, the odds of Bitcoin belatedly plunging to levels seen in earlier bear markets are diminishing.
Still, the analysis compares past market cycles with current price action and does not mean the possibility of further declines has disappeared entirely.
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.