Quantum Alliance Forms as 6.4 Million Bitcoin Face Future Quantum Attack Risk

Warnings that nearly 30% of Bitcoin’s supply could become vulnerable to future quantum-computing attacks are prompting the crypto industry to mount a coordinated security response.

CoinDesk reported on October 16 that nine companies and organizations, including crypto security firms and blockchain projects, have launched the Quantum Alliance to address quantum-computing threats facing major blockchains including Bitcoin and Ether.

The Quantum Alliance estimates that about 6.4 million Bitcoin could eventually be exposed to quantum attacks. That amounts to about 30.2% of the total supply. The main risk factor, it said, is that the public keys for those wallets have already been exposed.

If quantum computers gain sufficient computing power, attackers could infer private keys from public keys and use them to steal assets held in those wallets. Still, no quantum computer capable of breaking current cryptographic systems has yet been developed, and those Bitcoin are not at immediate risk of theft.

Experts differ on when such attacks could become feasible. Richard Carbaj, chief technology officer at Post-Quantum Labs, put 2028 forward as a realistic timeline. Bryn Bennett, chief revenue officer at TheVolt, said the timing is hard to predict but argued that the industry should prepare a framework for moving vulnerable assets in case technological advances come faster than expected.

How to handle the 1.1 million Bitcoin believed to be held by Satoshi Nakamoto is also emerging as a key issue. Christopher Smith, chief executive officer of Quantus, said the first party to obtain a quantum computer capable of breaking cryptography could steal those assets, and that the move could be followed by approval from a national government.

That has split opinion between those who argue vulnerable Bitcoin should be frozen in advance and those who say doing so would undermine the principle of protecting ownership rights. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao and Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp have previously proposed restricting the movement of assets vulnerable to quantum-computing attacks. Bennett, by contrast, said asset freezes could set a precedent affecting property rights and network neutrality, and called for a cautious approach.

The Quantum Alliance plans to establish common security testing standards and guidelines for transitioning to quantum-resistant systems. Participants include Hacken, Charles Hoskinson’s Midnight Foundation, Quantus and Post-Quantum Labs. Still, changing Bitcoin’s digital signature method would require broad agreement among developers, miners, exchanges, wallet service providers and users, meaning any actual transition would require extensive coordination.