Bitcoin $100,000 Year-End Call Splits Analysts as Inflation, Fed Rate Risks Loom

Analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin can break above $100,000 by year-end, as expectations for gains driven by stronger institutional demand clash with concerns over U.S. inflation and further Federal Reserve rate increases.

CoinDesk reported on October 18 that crypto asset manager Bitwise sees Bitcoin topping $100,000 by the end of the year. Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise’s head of research, pointed to institutional inflows through exchange-traded funds, corporate Bitcoin purchases, growing government debt that could boost demand for hard assets, and an improving regulatory backdrop as the main bullish drivers.

LO:TECH, a crypto trading firm, has a more cautious view. Adam Morgan McCarthy, the firm’s head of research, expects Bitcoin to trade in an $85,000 to $95,000 range through year-end. He said markets were pricing in about a 75% chance of an additional Fed rate increase in December following the U.S. central bank’s September hike, and that monetary-policy pressure would remain.

Recent inflation data has also added uncertainty to the bullish outlook. The U.S. consumer price index released on October 14 rose 0.6% from the previous month, while core CPI increased 0.3%. McCarthy said Bitcoin would need slower increases in oil prices and consumer prices, along with a shift in expectations from another Fed hike to a pause, to regain $100,000.

Still, the derivatives market has prompted some calls for further upside. Luca Invernizzi, chief trader at Laser Digital, Nomura’s digital-asset unit, said forced-selling pressure had eased as leveraged positions in the Bitcoin market were largely unwound. He added that if Bitcoin decisively breaks above $90,000, further gains could follow as short positions are liquidated.

Meanwhile, James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research, said $11.1 billion has flowed into crypto investment products since mid-July, though recent buying momentum has slowed. He said concerns about government finances could support Bitcoin demand over the medium to long term, but emphasized that a sustained rally would require continued inflows from institutional investors.