JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Returning 10% Annually Over Next 10-15 Years, Outpacing US Large Caps and Gold
Summary
- JPMorgan Asset Management said in its "2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" that it expects Bitcoin to deliver an annualized compounded return of 10% over the next 10 to 15 years.
- It said that would top the projected returns for US large-cap stocks (7.5%), gold (5.5%), and US REITs (8.2%) over the same period.
- It also said Bitcoin's annualized volatility is projected to reach 55%, meaning strong return potential would come with substantial price swings.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
JPMorgan projects that Bitcoin will deliver higher annual returns than US large-cap stocks and gold over the next 10 to 15 years.
Wu Blockchain reported on October 20 that JPMorgan Asset Management, the asset-management arm of JPMorgan Chase & Co., included Bitcoin for the first time in its recently published "2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" and projected a 10% annualized compounded return over the next 10 to 15 years.
That exceeds the firm's projected returns over the same period for US large-cap stocks at 7.5%, gold at 5.5%, and US real estate investment trusts, or REITs, at 8.2%.
JPMorgan estimated Bitcoin's annual arithmetic average return at 20.9%. It also put annualized volatility at 55%, indicating that while the token offers strong return potential, it also carries significant price risk.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, highlighted the forecast as showing Bitcoin as the asset with the highest expected returns over the next decade.
The outlook is also notable because it marks the first time JPMorgan has included Bitcoin in its long-term asset-return analysis. Still, the figures are estimates derived from long-term market assumptions and do not guarantee actual investment returns.
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.