US Midterm Elections 8 Days Away; Crypto Market Watches Potential Democratic Edge

With eight days left until the US midterm elections, attention is also turning to how the result could affect the digital-asset market.

According to BeInCrypto on October 26, Polymarket bettors put the odds of Democrats winning a House majority at 93% and a Senate majority at 65%.

If Democrats ultimately control both chambers, that could weigh on Bitcoin (BTC), the report said.

One factor is the dollar's strength. Glassnode, a digital-asset analytics firm, said Bitcoin's inverse correlation with the dollar has recently reached its strongest level on record. If Democrats rein in the Trump administration's large fiscal spending and ease concerns over the budget deficit, the dollar could strengthen, adding downward pressure on Bitcoin.

Uncertainty over digital-asset regulation is also a major variable. Much of the current US regulatory framework for digital assets depends on policy from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. BeInCrypto said that if Democrats control Congress and put the brakes on the Trump administration's legislative agenda, policy could shift further toward executive orders and regulator-led oversight. In that case, existing rules could be revised if the administration changes in the future.

At the same time, Democratic control of Congress could support Bitcoin if it helps ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to the report. If Democrats limit funding for military operations related to Iran, global oil prices could fall and inflation pressures could ease. That, in turn, could reduce pressure for US rate hikes, weaken the dollar and lift Bitcoin prices.