Israel Election Exit Polls Show Opposition’s Eisenkot Narrowly Ahead, Majority Unclear

Exit polls in Israel’s general election showed opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Bloomberg reported on October 27 that three exit polls conducted after the vote projected 52 seats for the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot in the 120-seat Knesset. The right-wing and religious alliance led by Netanyahu was projected to win 50 seats.

Neither side reached the 61 seats needed to form a government. Even so, Netanyahu’s Likud party was projected to win 24 to 25 seats, ahead of Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which was forecast to take 21 to 23.

The key variable in coalition talks is the stance of Arab parties. Two Arab parties were projected to win a combined 18 seats in the exit polls. Both said they would offer Eisenkot a degree of support to block Netanyahu from returning to power.

After the exit polls were released, Eisenkot said the early results showed “a complete vote of no confidence” in Netanyahu and pledged to push for a change in government. Turnout was about 78%, near a record high.

The final seat distribution could still shift once the official count is completed, meaning talks to form the next government could take considerable time. Israel has historically required coalition governments because no single party has secured an outright majority.

The next prime ministerial nominee will be designated by President Isaac Herzog based on the final seat tally and recommendations from each party. Netanyahu will remain in office until coalition negotiations are completed.