Bitcoin Slides Toward $76,000 After Binance’s $6.3 Billion Hack, Putting KRW 100 Million Level at Risk

Slide in US tech stocks also weighs on sentiment

October’s bullish “Uptober” pattern breaks down

Prospect of a December rate hike adds pressure

JPMorgan sees long-term upside in returns

Bitcoin’s failure to rebound is deepening investor anxiety. Sentiment has weakened as a selloff in major US technology stocks coincided with a massive hack at Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. The so-called “Uptober” effect, which refers to October’s usual strength in digital assets, also failed to materialize this year. The market is split between caution over further near-term losses and optimism that the pullback could offer a buying opportunity.

◇A pileup of negative catalysts

According to Upbit, a South Korean crypto exchange, Bitcoin was trading at 105.354 million won, or about $75,800, as of 9 a.m. on October 30, down 3.33% from a day earlier. It fell as low as 103.711 million won, or roughly $74,600, at about 11 a.m. the same day. Bitcoin dropped into the 88 million won range in intraday trading in August before rebounding and recovering the 100 million won level about a week later. It rose above 110 million won, or about $79,200, at the end of August and climbed as high as 117.6 million won, or roughly $84,700, at one point in September. It then turned lower and slipped below 110 million won in mid-October. That left it about 40% below its record high of around 179 million won, set in October last year. In overseas markets, Bitcoin also fell below $80,000. CoinMarketCap data show it slid into the $76,000 range at one point on the morning of October 30.

The drop reflected a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment after a major hack at Binance. The exchange said on its official website on October 30 that crypto assets worth about $6.3 billion had been stolen. It was the largest hack ever recorded in the digital-asset industry. Binance temporarily suspended withdrawals immediately after the incident and began security checks. It said assets worth about $3 billion had been frozen on-chain. The exchange also said it would compensate customers for losses using its own resources and other funds.

The timing of the incident, ahead of the US midterm elections, has added to market uncertainty. Volatility could increase after the vote depending on the balance of power in Congress and the direction of crypto policy. Differences among US political camps over digital-asset regulation may also affect the handling of related legislation, underscoring the need for caution among investors.

The hack also came as selling pressure was spreading through US equities, led by technology shares, amplifying the market impact. All three major New York stock indexes closed lower on October 29. Alphabet shares tumbled 12.64% after the company’s third-quarter results, released a day earlier, fell far short of market expectations. About $500 billion in market value was wiped out in a single session. Bitcoin tends to trade in line with technology stocks. A selloff in AI infrastructure and software shares spread across risk assets more broadly, and Bitcoin appeared to be caught up in that move.

◇Outlook for prices diverges

Some market participants expect Bitcoin to remain weak for a while. Prices fell even in October, a month that has typically been strong, dimming hopes for a year-end rebound. That has also fueled views that a so-called Santa rally around Christmas may be hard to expect this year.

Data from crypto analytics firm CoinGlass show Bitcoin posted gains in 10 of the 13 Octobers from 2013 through last year. But that pattern broke down last year, and there was no clear rebound at year-end. With October weakness continuing this year, concerns are rising that a similar pattern could repeat.

The possibility of another benchmark interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve is also weighing on sentiment. At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on October 28, the Fed said US economic activity was “expanding at a strong pace.” That was stronger than the “solid pace” language used in the previous month’s statement. Markets have taken that as a hawkish signal that keeps the focus on monetary tightening.

Recent US growth and inflation data have also come in above expectations, increasing the chances of another rate hike in December. Unlike stocks or bonds, Bitcoin does not pay interest or dividends. Higher rates can therefore reduce its relative appeal.

Still, some see the recent pullback as a long-term investment opportunity. In its recently released 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, JPMorgan Asset Management projected Bitcoin’s annualized compound return at 10% over the next decade under its base-case scenario. That is higher than its forecast for US large-cap stocks at 7.5%, a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio at 7%, and gold at 5.5%.

This was the first time JPMorgan Asset Management included a long-term expected return for Bitcoin in the annual report. The firm also said investors would need to accept volatility commensurate with those higher returns. It estimated Bitcoin’s annual volatility at 55% and said its correlation with other assets remains unstable.

Kim Soo-hyun, Hankyung.com reporter, ksoohyun@hankyung.com