Suspicious Trades Emerge in US Midterm Prediction Market as Large Bets Placed Just Before Poll Releases
Summary
- A roughly $200,000 bet on Pete Ricketts winning was detected on Polymarket, a prediction market tied to the U.S. midterm elections, one hour before a poll was released.
- The user reportedly made a $77,000 profit on the Ricketts bet and repeated the pattern in Michigan's Senate race with a roughly $622,600 bet on Abdul El-Sayed to win.
- Researchers said the repeated large bets placed just before poll releases are fueling suspicions of nonpublic information use, while Brett Goldstein said further investigation is needed.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Large bets were placed in a prediction market just before poll results related to the U.S. midterm elections were released.
The New York Times reported on November 7 that researchers at Vanderbilt University, after analyzing Polymarket data, found one user wagered about $200,000 on Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts winning one hour before a poll was published.
The user reportedly made a $77,000 profit from that bet.
The same user carried out a similar trade in Michigan's Senate race. On October 31, the trader bet about $622,600 on Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed to win. A poll released the following day showed El-Sayed leading by 11 percentage points.
The repeated appearance of large bets just before poll releases has fueled suspicions that the trader may have acted on nonpublic information obtained in advance. Brett Goldstein, a researcher at Vanderbilt University's Institute of National Security, said the pattern was difficult to dismiss as mere coincidence and called for further investigation.
Uk Jin
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