Polymarket US Volume Jumps 266% in Four Months Despite Regulatory Disputes

Polymarket’s US prediction-market platform is posting sharp growth in trading volume despite regulatory investigations and lawsuits.

Cointelegraph reported on November 10 that monthly volume on Polymarket’s US exchange rose about 266% to $14.77 billion in October from $4.04 billion in June. The figure is based on data compiled by analytics platform Ticker Tracker using total contract payouts. Polymarket also said annualized revenue increased from more than $1 billion in June to above $1.8 billion recently.

Sports-related prediction products drove the increase in trading. In October, volume in multi-leg contracts bundling several predictions into one trade reached $8.6 billion, or 58.2% of the total. Sports contracts accounted for $4.57 billion, or 31%. Soccer-related volume surged to $1.81 billion in June, when the FIFA World Cup began, from $85.4 million a month earlier.

Political prediction trading also increased around the US midterm elections. From November 1 through November 10, election-related contract volume reached $108.2 million, topping the entire September total of $16.6 million. Even so, political trades made up just 2.2% of total volume this month.

Polymarket is also pursuing a large fundraising round as it expands its business. The company is raising about $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation, according to the report. Investment firm 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of US President Donald Trump, is a partner, is set to lead the round with an investment of about $300 million.

Regulatory uncertainty in the US remains. New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Polymarket in September, alleging that its sports-related contracts violated state gambling law. At the federal level, there have also been calls for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to investigate allegations that Polymarket paid social media influencers to promote sham trading activity.

The central issue is which authority has oversight of sports prediction contracts. The CFTC maintains that prediction markets fall under federal commodities law. Some state governments argue the contracts amount to gambling and should require state licensing and supervision. New Jersey asked the US Supreme Court in September to rule on the dispute.

Polymarket resumed trading for US users through a US-only exchange at the end of last year and has broadened access since May. Still, the legal status of sports prediction markets remains unsettled despite the increase in volume, leaving future expansion dependent on decisions by regulators and the courts.