Ripple and Stellar React Rapidly to SEC Chairman's Resignation... Has the 'Altcoin Season' Begun? [Kang Min-seung's Altcoin Now]

"Ripple, Expected to Continue Rising Above 2.75 Dollars"

"Possible Drop to 2.5 Dollars"

After the announcement by Gary Gensler, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), who was called the 'crypto asset regulator', that he will resign in January next year, Ripple (XRP) and other altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and other crypto assets) are seeing a surge in their prices. Market experts have analyzed that as capital inflows and trading volumes in the altcoin market rapidly increase, the expectation for a rise is growing.

XRP is trading at 2.5573 dollars, down 7.11% from the previous day, based on the Binance USDT market as of 13:25 on the 4th. The relative value of Ripple against Bitcoin (XRP/BTC) fell by 7.05% compared to the previous day.

On this day, Bitcoin's dominance (the proportion of Bitcoin in the total market capitalization of crypto assets) showed a downward trend at 55.19% over the past week. The recent rise in Bitcoin prices and the decline in dominance can be interpreted as many altcoins outperforming Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the Kimchi premium (the price difference between domestic and overseas exchanges for major crypto assets like Bitcoin) recorded -0.57%. In the domestic market, crypto assets are being traded at prices significantly lower than the global market prices.

"Ripple Reacts Rapidly to Gensler's Resignation... Expectation for Real Asset ETF and Stablecoin Launch Increases"

After the announcement by Gary Gensler, who was considered a crypto asset skeptic, that he will resign on the 22nd of last month, the recent explosive rise in Ripple and other altcoins has been recorded. Gensler is expected to resign on the day Trump takes office (January 20 next year). After this news was delivered, Ripple surged by 125% until this day, ranking third in the market capitalization of crypto assets. During the same period, Stellar (XLM) rose by 123%, and Algorand (ALGO) by 172%.

Ripple is gaining momentum with the expectation that it can launch a real asset ETF and its own stablecoin 'RLUSD'. Previously, Bitwise, Canari Capital, 21Shares, and WisdomTree submitted applications for Ripple's real asset ETF. There is also a prospect that the launch of Ripple's real asset ETF by U.S. asset management companies could accelerate. Nate Geraci, CEO of ETF Store, said, "It is expected that the number of Ripple real asset ETF issuers will continue to increase after the application is accepted."

Also, Fox Business reported on the 1st, citing a source, "The New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) is likely to approve Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD soon." The crypto asset media The Crypto Basic said, "RLUSD is likely to use XRP as a reserve, which will have the effect of reducing the total supply while maintaining the circulation supply of XRP." The launch of RLUSD by Ripple Labs is expected to be a catalyst for the rise in Ripple prices.

As optimistic prospects are confirmed, the market has seen a significant influx of Ripple buyers. On the 2nd, the crypto asset data analysis company Santiment reported through X (formerly Twitter), "Investors holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 XRP have accumulated 6,579,100 XRP over the past three weeks." The Ripple they accumulated amounts to 16,600,000 dollars (approximately 2.33 billion won). Santiment added, "Recently, both institutional and individual investors have accumulated volumes, and Ripple's price has reached its highest level since 2018."

Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the U.S. presidential candidate, is expected to implement a crypto-friendly policy, and the crypto asset market is expected to continue its upward trend. On the 2nd, Bloomberg said, "Trump is expected to create a regulatory environment friendly to digital assets," adding, "After Trump's victory in the election, the market value of crypto assets increased by about 1.2 trillion dollars (approximately 1,683 trillion won)."

'To the Moon' Ripple, Surged Over 360% in a Month... Will It Reach 3 Dollars?

Market experts predict that if Ripple stabilizes above 2.75 dollars, it is highly likely to continue rising, but if it falls below 2.5 dollars, it may drop further. Analysts have said that recently, institutional investors are buying Ripple in large volumes through exchanges.

Recently, Ripple is holding its breath and challenging additional rises. Ayushi Jindal, a researcher at NewsBTC, said, "Ripple is aiming for a short-term high at 2.869 dollars and is consolidating near 2.7 dollars while seeking additional rises," adding, "If Ripple breaks the resistance line at 2.75 dollars, it is highly likely to continue rising. The resistance lines for the rise are located at 2.85 dollars, 2.96 dollars, and 3 dollars."

Analysts said, "If Ripple fails to break the resistance line, it may fall to 2.65 dollars and 2.52 dollars," adding, "If it breaks the support line at 2.52 dollars, it may drop to 2.45 dollars and 2.3 dollars."

Ripple has entered the overbought zone, and there is also a prospect that volatility may increase temporarily. Rakesh Upadhyay, a researcher at Cointelegraph, said, "Ripple has a high possibility of reaching 3 dollars after breaking the major resistance at 1.97 dollars. After that, it may test 3.84 dollars."

He added, "Ripple has entered the overbought zone after showing rapid fluctuations in recent months, and there is a possibility of a sudden drop," adding, "Investors should be cautious about the expansion of volatility." If Ripple receives short-term adjustments, the 2-dollar range is expected to be a key support line.

The rapidly rising Ripple is also expected to realize the expectations of long-term investors. Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, said, "XRP has surged by 360% over the past 30 days, and the price is rising day by day," adding, "Ripple and other coins like Litecoin (LTC) are rising with the expectation that the U.S. will complete its regulatory framework. In the futures market, 'short squeezes' are occurring, boosting their upward momentum."

Analysts said, "The current price range is seen as a good point for long-term investors to realize their expectations and liquidate their holdings," adding, "Conversely, new investors and short-term investors may face risks due to (entry into) volatility."

Meanwhile, 'short squeezes' refer to investors who sold during the rise of Bitcoin prices, covering their short positions or reducing their losses by buying back.

Altcoin Market, Total Market Cap and Trading Volume Surge... Has the 'Altcoin Season' Begun?

Bitcoin, the largest crypto asset, is holding its breath ahead of 10 million dollars, while the trading volume and total market cap of altcoins (excluding Bitcoin) are surging. As the expectation for a rise in altcoins increases, there is also a prospect that the altcoin circulation market will be activated.

On the 25th of last month, the global crypto asset exchange Bitfinex said in a research report, "The total market cap of altcoins continues to rise, approaching the highest level of 984 billion dollars (approximately 1,372 trillion won) in May 2021," adding, "As investment funds move from Bitcoin to altcoins, the 'altcoin season' is beginning."

The report continued, "In particular, the total market cap of altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has recently surged, showing the largest upward trend since April 2021," adding, "(In capital inflows) Solana and other altcoins have broken through major resistance levels and reached historical highs."

The report also predicted that as individual investors' participation increases, the momentum of altcoins will be further strengthened.

As the trading volume of altcoins surges, the expectation for a rise is also increasing. The crypto asset data analysis company Kaiko said, "The proportion of altcoin trading volume in the total crypto asset trading volume has reached up to 74%, hitting the highest level in three years," adding, "The altcoin trading volume has started to surge from early November. The crypto asset market has been dominated by Bitcoin, but recently the risk appetite is growing."

According to Kaiko, the weekly trading volume of the top 50 altcoins in terms of market cap was recorded at 3,050 billion dollars (approximately 425 trillion won) in early November, marking the highest level since October 2021.

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, said, "After the recent short-term adjustment of Bitcoin, the altcoin market has followed," adding, "Investors are moving to altcoins like Ethereum, and the altcoin season index has surged."

On this day, according to the blockchain center, the 'altcoin season' index of the altcoin market recorded 86, the highest level since March, indicating that the altcoin season has begun. The altcoin season index is considered to be activated when it surpasses 75.

There is also an analysis that the volatility of the altcoin market may intensify temporarily. The crypto asset strategist Michael van de Poppe said, "The crypto asset market is entering a strong bull market. The value of altcoins against Bitcoin is expected to continue rising," adding, "The worn-out momentum may be linked to the expansion of volatility."

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io