'Yoon's Impeachment Motion' Likely to Pass on the 14th

Atmosphere of Ruling Party Lawmakers Participating in the Vote

At least 5 have defected so far

Ahead of the re-vote on President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment motion on the 14th, there is growing momentum for the motion to pass. Many assess that the ruling party's 'unified front' has effectively collapsed, with lawmakers, particularly those close to Han Dong-hoon, expressing their intention to participate in the vote.

The Democratic Party of Korea submitted the second impeachment motion against President Yoon on the 11th and announced a re-vote scheduled for 5 PM on the 14th. While the People Power Party still maintains 'opposition to impeachment' as its party line, more lawmakers are expressing their intention to participate in the vote. Lawmaker Kim Jae-seop held a press conference that day, stating, "I intend to impeach President Yoon. This is the way to uphold the constitutional order of the Republic of Korea."

Including lawmakers Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Ye-ji, who voted in favor during the vote on the 7th, and Kim Sang-wook and Cho Kyung-tae, who have already expressed their support, there are five votes in favor. In this situation, lawmakers Bae Hyun-jin, Park Jung-hoon, Kim So-hee, Jin Jong-oh, Yoo Yong-won, Go Dong-jin, and pro-Yoon lawmakers Kwon Young-se and Kim Dae-sik have also declared their intention to participate in the vote.

If just three of them cast a vote in favor, the impeachment motion will pass.

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Ahead of the plenary vote on President Yoon Suk-yeol's second impeachment motion on the 14th, more than 10 lawmakers from the People Power Party have turned to 'participation in the vote.' In a situation where the impeachment motion can pass with just eight dissenting votes from within the ruling party, the party line of "blocking impeachment" has effectively cracked. There are also predictions that if President Yoon does not accept the demand for voluntary resignation by this week, it will be practically impossible to avoid impeachment.

According to a comprehensive report by Hankyung on the 11th, lawmakers Kwon Young-se, Yoo Yong-won, Kim So-hee, Park Jung-hoon, Jin Jong-oh, Kim Dae-sik, and Go Dong-jin have decided to attend the re-vote on the impeachment motion on the 14th. Lawmaker Yoo stated, "Many lawmakers turned to the opinion that they should participate in the impeachment vote during the general assembly the previous day," adding, "I, too, will participate in the vote regardless of being for or against." Lawmaker Kim Dae-sik expressed his intention to participate in the vote, saying, "Even if we oppose, let's go in and oppose," and lawmaker Go Dong-jin also stated, "I will naturally attend."

Including lawmaker Bae Hyun-jin, who expressed her intention to participate the previous day, a total of 13 lawmakers have declared their intention to enter the voting hall. Lawmaker Bae stated, "In the general assembly, half of the lawmakers said they should participate in the vote, and half opposed participation." This marks a significant change from the ruling party's decision to 'walk out en masse' ahead of last week's vote. Accordingly, it is assessed that the impeachment motion to be presented on the 14th is certain to exceed the quorum of 200 votes required for the vote to be valid.

Within the ruling party, there is cautious speculation about the possibility of the motion passing. If more than eight lawmakers from the People Power Party defect, President Yoon's impeachment motion will pass. Lawmaker Kim Jae-seop, who joined the public support for impeachment that day, stated in a press conference, "This (President Yoon's impeachment) is the way to uphold the constitutional order of the Republic of Korea," urging the People Power Party to support impeachment as a party line. Including lawmaker Kim, a total of five lawmakers from the ruling party have expressed their support for impeachment as of that day. Lawmakers Kim Ye-ji and Ahn Cheol-soo are likely to cast votes in favor as they did on the 7th.

Lawmaker Cho Kyung-tae stated the previous day, "President Yoon should resign by Saturday (the 14th) at the latest," adding, "I will decide on my stance regarding the impeachment vote then." This implies that he will support the impeachment motion if President Yoon takes no separate action. Lawmaker Kim Sang-wook also publicly expressed his support the previous day. Even if only three of the ruling party's undecided voters cast votes in favor, President Yoon's impeachment motion will pass.

The impeachment motion will pass if more than two-thirds of the National Assembly members (300 members) vote in favor, which is at least 200 votes. During the first impeachment vote on the 7th, the People Power Party decided on 'walking out en masse' as a party line to prevent defections. As a result, despite all 192 members of the opposition bloc participating, the vote was invalidated due to a lack of quorum, leading to the dismissal of the impeachment motion. This vote is expected to be conducted as a de facto free vote.

Until that day, the ruling party maintained 'opposition to impeachment and simultaneous walkout' as its party line, but it is assessed that the party's calculations have become complicated as President Yoon is reportedly leaning towards receiving a judgment from the Constitutional Court through impeachment rather than voluntary resignation.

If eight votes in favor come from within the ruling party and the impeachment motion passes, President Yoon's duties and powers will be immediately suspended. The Constitutional Court must then deliver a ruling within 180 days from the day the impeachment motion is received. If the Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment motion and the presidency becomes vacant, a presidential election must be held within 60 days from that day.

Jeong So-ram/Park Joo-yeon, reporters ram@hankyung.com