Polymarket Yoon Impeachment Prediction Surges to 92% After Speech

Despite President Yoon Suk-yeol's national address regarding martial law, overseas gamblers seem to be betting heavily on the likelihood of his impeachment.

As of 11:11 AM on the 12th, according to Polymarket, about $2 million has been wagered on the question "Will President Yoon Suk-yeol be impeached by 2024?" The probability of impeachment is currently assessed at 92%.

Earlier, around 10 AM, President Yoon delivered a national address from the Yongsan presidential office, stating, "Whether I am impeached or investigated, I will face it with confidence," and "The martial law measure is not to destroy the constitutional order and national constitution of the Republic of Korea but to inform the people of the crisis of national ruin and to protect and restore the constitutional order and national constitution. The exercise of the president's martial law proclamation right is a period of governance that is not subject to judicial review, like the exercise of the pardon right and diplomatic rights."

This is interpreted as an indication that he does not intend to follow the demands of the People Power Party for a shortened term or voluntary resignation. With President Yoon's statement, many members of the People Power Party are likely to support the impeachment bill to be voted on at the National Assembly's plenary session on the 14th.

Han Dong-hoon, the party leader, also reacted immediately. At a press conference held at the National Assembly, Han stated, "As the party leader, I express my intention. The president should be immediately excluded from national governance, including military command," and "Since it has been confirmed that the president has no intention of early resignation, immediate suspension of duties is necessary." He continued, "Now the only effective method is the impeachment process. In the next vote, our party members should attend the meeting and vote according to their beliefs and conscience," and "From the time of the martial law proclamation until now, we have consistently maintained a firm stance that those involved in unconstitutional and illegal martial law, including the president, should be strongly punished," expressing support for impeachment.

The probability of President Yoon Suk-yeol's voluntary resignation has significantly dropped. In a bet attracting about $4 million, the possibility of his resignation is still seen at 13%.