"Next Year's Stock Market Led by AI Software... US Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin to Rise Further"

2025 Economic and Financial Market Predictions

Domestic Asset Management Experts Gather... Present Global Investment Strategies

'Trump Risk' Strikes Hard

US Protectionism and America First Policy

Global Funds to Flow Heavily into the US

This Year, Semiconductor Stocks Like NVIDIA Were Strong

Next Year, Growth of AI Software Like Tesla Expected

Concerns Over Aftermath of US-China Trade Conflict

Turn Attention to High Dividend and Value-Added Stocks

"The key keyword for next year's economy is 'America First.' With the second Trump administration, the uncertainty looming over economies outside the US will grow even larger. Regardless, AI-related stocks, which are expected to see significant market growth, will become the most promising sector." (Lee Jae-ok, Head of Retail Business Division at KB Securities)

At the '2025 Domestic and International Economic and Financial Market Prediction Seminar' held on the 12th, economic and financial experts on stage advised, "Pay attention to AI and semiconductor-related sectors, which are expected to remain strong next year, following this year." They emphasized that alternative investment assets like gold and Bitcoin should also be included in portfolios to hedge against geopolitical uncertainties and a strong dollar.

○"US Stock Market Rally to Continue Next Year"

Experts predicted, "The US stock market rally will continue next year." △Trump administration's America First policy △Strong dollar △AI technology innovation are expected to absorb global investment funds next year. Lee emphasized, "With the Trump administration emphasizing America First policies, the US stock market rally will continue next year, following this year," and "The global stock market will be divided into 'US and non-US markets.'" Yeom Jeong-joo, Center Head at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "If the US-China trade dispute intensifies, Korea's stock market, which is export-oriented, will inevitably suffer more," and "To avoid such risks, domestic investors will increase their proportion of US stocks."

AI and semiconductor-related stocks are particularly expected to be strong. While hardware companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and SK Hynix showed remarkable growth this year, AI software companies are expected to stand out next year. Lee explained, "As the leading stocks within the AI sector shift from hardware to software, companies like Tesla and Palantir will come to the fore," and "Investing in mega trends is a comfortable investment method." He further emphasized, "The AI market, which was worth 200 trillion won last year, is expected to expand to 1,900 trillion won by 2030."

Alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin are also noted as potential shelters to avoid 'Trump risk.' Kim Jeong-hyun, Head of Financial Product Promotion at Hana Securities, said, "As the number of Bitcoin investors has increased significantly, Bitcoin volatility has decreased to the level of tech stocks," and "With the US government firmly expressing its intention to mine remaining Bitcoins, Bitcoin will occupy a pillar among new investment assets."

Gold, which rose significantly this year, is expected to remain strong until the first half of next year. Yeom also said, "The recent rise in gold prices was due to demand from countries like China and Russia trying to reduce their dollar dependency," and "Demand to hedge against US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may increase more than this year."

○"Focus on Value-Added and High Dividend Stocks Domestically"

Experts unanimously said that investments in markets outside the US should be cautious. Although India showed high economic growth this year, the recent inauguration of the Trump administration has led to foreign investment funds flowing out, increasing short-term volatility. For raw material exports, which support the economies of Latin American countries, a rebound in the Chinese economy is necessary. Yeom said, "If the Chinese stock market rebounds, the Indian stock market may lose foreign investment funds to China."

The domestic stock market outlook is not very bright either. As the Trump administration plans to impose a universal tariff of 10-20% on foreign imports, the performance of Korean export companies may deteriorate. According to the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, if the maximum universal tariff is applied, Korea's total exports could decrease by up to 44.8 billion dollars (64.2028 trillion won), about 6% of the total export amount. An Seong-bae, Vice President of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, predicted, "It is unclear how far the actual tariff policy will be applied, but in the early days of President Trump's administration, he may actively use his discretionary power to implement tariff policies."

Accordingly, it is expected that major domestic industries will be divided into those that suffer and those that benefit from Trump's trade policies. Kwon Nam-hoon, Director of the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade, said, "Automobiles and secondary batteries, which account for a significant portion of the US trade surplus, will face great difficulties due to the Trump administration's America First policy," while "On the other hand, information and communication devices and display industries may benefit from the US's export-import regulations with China."

The outlook for the Chinese market varied among experts. Yeom said, "Due to the strong economic stimulus measures by the Chinese government, blue-chip stocks should be noted," while An said, "China's economic growth rate has significantly decreased compared to before the pandemic," lowering next year's Chinese GDP growth rate from 4.5% to 4.1%.

Bae Tae-woong, Reporter btu104@hankyung.com