[New York Stock Exchange Weekly Outlook] FOMC on 17-18, High Probability of 0.25% Cut... Focus on Continuation of Santa Rally

November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) to be Announced

U.S. Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate Finalized

The biggest event on the New York Stock Exchange this week (16-20) is the regular meeting of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for the 17th-18th. Wall Street expects the Fed to cut rates at this meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the interest rate futures market has priced in nearly a 100% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25 percentage points this time.

The Fed's economic outlook will also be announced at this FOMC meeting. Particularly noteworthy is the dot plot showing the Fed members' interest rate projections. Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street's largest investment banks, predicts that the Fed will suggest four rate cuts next year in the dot plot.

Wall Street is also expecting the Santa Rally to continue this week. Typically, the last two weeks of the year bring a warm breeze to the stock market in New York. Especially since the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations, it is observed that investors can expect a year-end rally as long as there are no surprises from the FOMC.

Among major economic indicators, the November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a preferred inflation measure by the Fed, will be released. Retail sales, a driving force accounting for one-third of U.S. economic growth, and the finalized Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will also be announced. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which gauges the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors, and manufacturing-related figures from regional Federal Reserve Banks will be released.

Among companies, semiconductor company Micron, retail company Nike, and FedEx will announce their earnings.

New York = Park Shin-young, Correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com