'Roller Coaster' Bitcoin...March Outlook Also 'Foggy'

Repeated Surges and Drops Due to 'Trump's Words'

High Possibility of Continued Volatility

"Market is in 'Risk-Off' Mode"

Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility is soaring as positive and negative factors from Trump intertwine. With the White House-led 'Cryptocurrency Summit' just around the corner, the prevailing view in the market is that Bitcoin price uncertainty will be difficult to resolve for the time being.

According to cryptocurrency market tracking site CoinMarketCap on the 6th, Bitcoin price recorded around $91,000 on this day. This is approximately 5% higher than the previous day. Bitcoin prices have shown sharp fluctuations in recent days. Since the beginning of this week, it has surpassed $94,000 and then fallen to the $82,000 range, showing a fluctuation of more than $10,000 in a single day.

The starting signal was fired by U.S. President Donald Trump. On the 2nd (local time), President Trump made a surprise announcement that he would stockpile five cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and XRP, as U.S. strategic assets. However, when President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada the very next day (3rd), Bitcoin experienced extreme fluctuations of more than 10% within just two days.

The problem is that such volatility is likely to continue for the time being. First, major events scheduled for this month, such as the cryptocurrency summit hosted by the White House on the 7th (local time), are raising market expectations. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) first cryptocurrency roundtable will also be held on the 21st (local time). Attention is focused on the SEC as it has been showing moves to ease cryptocurrency regulations following the inauguration of the Trump administration.

However, macroeconomic uncertainty is also growing as the U.S.-initiated trade war intensifies. Following President Trump's recent remarks about stockpiling cryptocurrencies, several events with significant market impact are scheduled, but the short-term outlook remains 'foggy' for this reason.

Kim Min-seung, head of Korbit Research Center, analyzed, "Recently, a lot of 'cash-and-carry' trade funds have flowed out, maximizing volatility," adding, "(The market) should be viewed as mixed." Cash-and-carry is a trading strategy that involves buying spot assets while simultaneously selling futures as a hedge (risk avoidance).

The price outlook for the first half of this year is equally unclear. Questions are being raised about the feasibility of the cryptocurrency stockpiling policy mentioned by President Trump, and the timing of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut is also highly uncertain. According to Polymarket, the world's largest betting site, the probability of the U.S. stockpiling Bitcoin as a strategic asset is currently 64%.

Kim said, "For (U.S. cryptocurrency stockpiling) to become a reality, specific discussions on asset purchase and management plans are needed, making immediate implementation difficult," adding, "We should also be mindful of the possibility of increased market volatility if the Trump administration's (cryptocurrency) policies fail to maintain consistency and transparency in the future."

Given this situation, cautious views are spreading in the market. XBT Manager, a contributor to CryptoQuant, stated, "(Bitcoin) should be considered in an adjustment phase after reaching an all-time high when considering various situations," adding, "As price adjustments are likely to continue for the time being, a cautious approach (to investment) is needed for the next few months."

Cryptocurrency analysis firm Matrixport also analyzed, "Despite scheduled events such as the White House cryptocurrency summit, the market still maintains a 'Risk-Off mode'," adding, "It appears that many traders are postponing re-entry into long positions until macroeconomic uncertainties are resolved."