Arthur Hayes: "Trump Deliberately Inducing 'Inflation'... Bullish for Bitcoin" [Cointerview]

Interview with Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Maelstrom

The Real Intention of 'America First' is 'Low-Interest Funding'

US Inducing Global Inflation Deepening... Bullish for Bitcoin

Statement on Strategic Crypto Asset Reserves Also 'Political'

Practically Impossible to Stockpile Altcoins

"President Donald Trump is deliberately disrupting global supply chains through tariff policies and taking measures to boost domestic production capacity. If this leads to a global economic recession, monetary policy will ease, causing prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to rise."

Arthur Hayes (pictured), BitMEX co-founder and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Maelstrom, stated this in an interview with BloomingBit on the 11th, explaining that the tariff policies currently being pursued by President Trump will ultimately have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market.

We spoke in detail with 'Crypto OG (Original Gangster, blockchain pioneer)' Arthur Hayes, known as the founder of cryptocurrency derivatives trading, about the outlook for the cryptocurrency market in 2025 as it intersects with macroeconomic factors including Trump administration policies.

The Real Intention of 'America First' is 'Low-Interest Funding'

CIO Hayes viewed President Trump's current 'America First' stance as ultimately a move to secure low-interest funding for US debt.

He said, "Trump is ultimately a politician, and there are clear intentions behind his policies," adding, "When the US promotes economic nationalist policies like America First, governments around the world will have to raise debt to secure supply chains, improve weapons production capabilities, and achieve self-sufficiency in essential industries. This will cause inflation and deepen economic recession, eventually creating an environment for interest rate cuts."

He continued, "President Trump is either causing an economic recession in this way or convincing the market that a recession is approaching, making Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ease financial conditions, with the long-term plan to secure policy funds through the Fed's 'Quantitative Easing (QE).'"

The US national debt stands at approximately $36 trillion (about 5,236.2 trillion won) as of January this year, with about $9 trillion (about 1,309 trillion won) in treasury bonds to be repaid this year alone. This interpretation suggests that President Trump is strategically inducing an economic recession to lower interest rates, as US interest rates need to decrease to reduce the interest burden on national debt.

US Inducing Global Inflation Deepening... Bullish for Bitcoin

CIO Hayes predicted that Trump's policy to induce interest rate cuts would ultimately be positive for the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin.

He emphasized, "If market confusion intensifies due to Trump's intentions and maintains a state of continuous excitement, investors will have their buying and selling psychology shaken, causing their assets to continue decreasing," adding, "At a time like this, one should adhere to the 'KISS (Keep-It-Simple-Stupid)' principle. As the recession deepens as Trump has outlined, and interest rates are cut, government debt will increase, expanding the money supply, which will inevitably benefit cryptocurrencies."

If the Federal Reserve implements policies such as interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, treasury bond purchases, and supplementary leverage ratio exemptions for banks to prevent a financial crisis due to economic recession, the scale of capital that can be injected into the cryptocurrency market could naturally increase.

CIO Hayes stated, "The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market is the only existing global free market. It reacts to liquidity crises before the US stock market and shows a downward trend," emphasizing, "Bitcoin could fall to around $70,000, the previous cycle's peak in the worst case, but I believe the market is still in an upward cycle. Politicians should do their job, and investors should focus on their job of buying Bitcoin."

Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve Statement Also 'Political'... "Altcoins Practically Impossible"

Meanwhile, CIO Hayes interpreted President Trump's recent policy to adopt cryptocurrencies as strategic reserve assets as a statement with highly political intentions.

He said, "From the current Trump administration's perspective, it's not convincing to increase US government debt to purchase cryptocurrencies," adding, "Therefore, the content in last week's cryptocurrency strategic reserve plan stating that no new funds would be injected is quite natural." He added, "Many investors thought the US government would raise debt to purchase cryptocurrencies, so the market's reaction after the announcement was inevitably lukewarm."

He believed it would be difficult for the US to purchase cryptocurrencies through additional budget allocations in the future. CIO Hayes explained, "Considering the Trump administration's situation, it is a very difficult choice politically to cut public service budgets while purchasing cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin."

He was even more pessimistic about the possibility of strategic reserves for altcoins. He stated, "The only cryptocurrency officially held by the US government is Bitcoin," adding, "The discussion itself about including altcoins such as Cardano (ADA), XRP, and Solana (SOL) that Trump previously mentioned in reserve assets is meaningless." He continued, "Since it is practically impossible for the US government to raise new debt to purchase altcoins, there is no reason for expectations of US government purchases to arise in the altcoin market."