[Morning Briefing] US Stock Market Plummets Again Amid Trade Tensions... Temperature Difference Over 14 Degrees

◆ US-China Trade Tensions Rise, Nasdaq 4%↓

The New York stock market, which had skyrocketed to record highs due to President Donald Trump's 90-day tariff delay, plummeted in just one day. On the 10th local time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 39,593.66, down 1,014.79 points (-2.50%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 index fell 188.85 points (-3.46%) to 5,268.05, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index closed at 16,387.31, down 737.66 points (-4.31%). The previous day, the New York stock market had closed with a historic surge as President Trump announced a 90-day delay on individual reciprocal tariffs applied to countries other than China. The previous day's S&P 500 index surged 9.52%, marking the third-highest increase in US stock market history since World War II during the financial crisis. The Nasdaq index's rise of 12.16% was the second-largest ever. However, with the three major indices plummeting again on this day, a significant portion of the previous day's gains was given back in just one day. The confirmation that the new tariff rate imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese imports, which was previously announced at 125%, was increased by an additional 20% for synthetic opioid fentanyl response, totaling 145%, accelerated the deterioration of investor sentiment. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate announced on this day was 2.4%, falling short of expert expectations, marking the lowest in over four years, but it was insufficient to quell concerns about a rebound in inflation and recession due to escalating trade tensions. Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said in an investor note, "The tariff delay helps but does not reduce uncertainty."

◆ Trump "May Buy Advanced Ships from Other Countries"... A Boon for Korean Shipbuilding Industry?

President Donald Trump reiterated his commitment to rebuilding the US shipbuilding industry on the 10th local time, suggesting that during the rebuilding period, the US could purchase ships from countries close to the US. President Trump, presiding over a cabinet meeting at the White House, said, "We will rebuild the shipbuilding industry," adding, "We may have to ask Congress for (ship purchase funds), but we could buy ships from other countries that are close and have excellent shipbuilding performance." These remarks came after receiving a report from National Security Advisor Mike Waltz on the expected effects of the 'Rebuilding American Shipbuilding' executive order signed by President Trump the previous day and the shipbuilding order status between China and the US last year. President Trump's comments are interpreted as a move to revive the US shipbuilding industry from a national security perspective in response to China's advanced shipbuilding industry, a global hegemonic competitor, while purchasing warships or merchant ships from allied countries with shipbuilding competitiveness during this period, requiring congressional approval for purchase funds. With South Korea leading the world in shipbuilding competitiveness, President Trump's remarks are expected to act as a boon for the Korean shipbuilding industry. President Trump also mentioned shipbuilding as a field of cooperation between South Korea and the US during his first call with Acting President Han Duk-soo on the 8th.

◆ International Oil Prices Plunge, Gold Prices Hit Record High

International oil prices, which had rebounded due to the Trump administration's 90-day tariff delay, plummeted again in just one day on the 10th local time due to the reemergence of US-China trade tensions. International gold prices hit a record high due to the continued preference for safe assets amid tariff uncertainty. On this day, the May delivery of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $60.07 per barrel, down $2.28 (3.66%) from the previous session. The June delivery of Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.33 per barrel, down $2.15 (3.28%) from the previous session. The confirmation that the final total tariff rate applied by the Trump administration to China was higher than previously known revived concerns about a recession due to escalating US-China trade tensions. Investors feared that the high tariff rate on China would lead to an economic downturn and reduced oil demand. Meanwhile, international gold prices surged by over 3% on this day, hitting a record high. According to Reuters, the near-month gold futures closed at $3,177.5 per ounce, up 3.2% from the previous session. Nikos Chabouras, chief market analyst at trading platform Trado, analyzed, "Gold is regaining its appeal as a safe asset and is heading towards a new record high."

◆ Kim Moon-soo, Han Dong-hoon, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Now Na Kyung-won Announce Candidacy

Presidential candidates from the People Power Party will visit the National Assembly in Yeouido and the party's core support base in the Yeongnam region today. Former Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo will visit the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Yeouido this morning to meet with party-affiliated lawmakers and aides. This move is interpreted as an effort to strengthen in-house engagement ahead of the full-fledged primary race. Former Representative Han Dong-hoon will visit Ulsan and Busan for a two-day, one-night schedule, while Representative Ahn Cheol-soo will continue his schedule in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region. Representative Na Kyung-won plans to announce her presidential candidacy on the steps in front of the main building of the National Assembly today and embark on a full-fledged presidential campaign. The People Power Party's presidential primary election management committee will hold its second meeting at the Yeouido Central Party Headquarters to coordinate detailed schedules and contents related to the primary.

◆ Seoul Drops from 19th to 24th in World's Wealthiest Cities

An analysis has revealed that Seoul experienced the largest drop in ranking among the world's 50 wealthiest cities last year. According to the 'World's Wealthiest 50 Cities' annual report by UK investment immigration consulting firm Henley & Partners and asset information company New World Wealth, as of December last year, the number of millionaires living in Seoul was 66,000, down from 82,500 the previous year. The ranking dropped to 24th, down five places from 19th the previous year, marking the largest drop among the 50 cities. In this statistic, a millionaire is defined as someone with 'investable liquid assets' such as publicly traded stocks, cash holdings, and cryptocurrencies worth over USD 1 million (approximately KRW 1.47 billion at the end of last year's exchange rate). Real estate is excluded. The number of billionaires in Seoul with such assets worth over USD 100 million (approximately KRW 147 billion at the end of last year's exchange rate) was 148, also down from 195 the previous year. The growth rate of the number of millionaires compared to 10 years ago was 17%, significantly lower than the previous year's (2013-2023) growth rate of 28%. Experts cite political instability and the depreciation of the Korean won as the background. In the foreign exchange market, the won/dollar exchange rate at the end of last year was 1,472.5 won based on the weekly closing price, up 184.5 won (14%) from 1,288.0 won a year earlier. Last year, the KOSPI fell by about 10% in won terms, but the dollar-converted KOSPI, reflecting the sharply rising won/dollar exchange rate, had a higher decline rate. In addition, in the estimated net outflow of millionaires, South Korea ranked fourth in the world with 1,200 people, following China (15,200 people), the UK (9,500 people), and India (4,300 people).

◆ Clear but Large Temperature Difference, Over 15 Degrees

Today, Friday, the weather will be mostly clear nationwide. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the weather will be influenced by high pressure moving from southern China to the seas south of Jeju, allowing for clear skies nationwide. For the time being, temperatures will be similar to or slightly higher than normal (lowest 2-9 degrees, highest 15-19 degrees). The morning low temperatures will range from 4-11 degrees, and the daytime high temperatures will range from 17-25 degrees. The daytime high temperatures are forecasted to be 17-25 degrees. The temperature difference between day and night will be over 15 degrees, especially in inland areas, so health management is advised. In the central and western regions, residual and domestically generated fine dust will accumulate due to atmospheric stagnation and air convergence. In the morning, some southern regions will also have high fine dust concentrations due to residual effects from atmospheric stagnation. The fine dust concentration in Seoul, Incheon, and southern Gyeonggi will be 'bad,' while other regions will remain at 'moderate' levels. However, Gyeonggi North, Chungnam, Daejeon, Sejong, Chungbuk, Busan, and Ulsan may temporarily reach 'bad' levels. Dense fog will form along the west coast until the morning, so caution is advised for traffic safety. Visibility will be less than 200 meters in the central west coast and northwest inland of Gyeonggi until the morning, and less than 1 km in Gyeonggi inland, Gangwon inland, Jeonbuk, and Jeonnam inland.

Kim So-yeon, Hankyung.com Reporter sue123@hankyung.com