[Analysis] "Timing is More Important than Quantity in Bitcoin Purchases"

On-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant stated on the 19th through its official X that "whales in the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem are not necessarily smart money." It explained that rather than mere holdings, it is the 'investment timing' that determines profitability in market cycles.

CryptoQuant presented data comparing the realized prices of new whales and existing whales as an indicator to prove this. This indicator compares the average purchase price (realized price) of short-term holder (STH) whales who have held for less than 155 days and long-term holder (LTH) whales who have held for more than 155 days. Miners and exchange wallets are excluded.

The analysis showed that the realized price of the STH group is $90,159. Considering the current Bitcoin market price (around $85,000), short-term whales are on average experiencing losses. CryptoQuant evaluated them as "difficult to see as smart money."

On the other hand, LTH whales are in a profit zone even in the current range because they purchased Bitcoin at much lower prices by holding it long-term. CryptoQuant explained that "real smart money are investors who strategically enter after understanding the structure and cycle of the market, not by holdings," and that "investment timing supported by knowledge and experience of the ecosystem determines profitability."

Another indicator to check the distribution of smart money is the 'Bitcoin UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) realized price by age group.' According to this indicator, addresses that held Bitcoin for 2-3 years just before the halving recorded the highest profitability compared to their average purchase cost. CryptoQuant emphasized that "not all whales become smart money," and "the core of investment ultimately depends on timing."