US Think Tank: "Lee Jae-myung Faces the Biggest Challenges Since Kim Dae-jung"

CSIS Points Out Clashes with US Over Trade Negotiations and Relations with China

Diagnoses a 'Quiet Crisis' in the South Korea-US Alliance

A US think tank analyzed that the new president Lee Jae-myung is facing the toughest challenges since former president Kim Dae-jung.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and others wrote in a post titled 'South Korea's New President: Out of the Frying Pan, Into the Fire (which means things going from bad to worse)', published on the CSIS website on the 3rd (local time), evaluating the challenges President Lee is up against.

Cha and others said of President Lee, "He must immediately tackle a backlog of domestic and foreign policy challenges without any time for a transition," adding that "he faces the biggest and most daunting challenges since former president Kim Dae-jung, who took office during the 1997 financial crisis."

They mentioned the wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, US tariffs, China’s export controls, and North Korea-Russia relations, emphasizing, "Although the economy remains a top priority, all these factors are detrimental to the recovery of South Korea's economy."

They also noted, "The Bank of Korea recently slashed its 2025 growth outlook by nearly half (from 1.5% to 0.8%)," and explained, "It's only the fourth time since 1987 that the growth forecast has fallen below 1%."

President Lee is assessed to be facing an even harsher external environment. Cha and others pointed out the lack of progress in US-Korea trade negotiations, explaining, "Each country must present its best trade offers by June 4, and about a month later, on July 8, the tariff waiver will also expire." They further observed, "There won't be enough time to prepare for negotiations with Trump."

Regarding the South Korea-US alliance, they also said it is facing a 'quiet crisis.' They stressed, "There has been talk about a possible reduction in US Forces Korea, and reflecting such issues, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth skipped Korea during his visit to the Indo-Pacific region. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, has also not visited Korea so far."

Referring to President Lee's emphasis on South Korea-US-Japan trilateral security cooperation in his foreign and security policies, they suggested, "This will create alignment with the Trump administration." However, regarding policy toward China, they warned, "The Trump administration has made it clear that allies cannot maintain economic ties with China while also cooperating with the US on security. There is potential for conflict with the Trump administration."

Oh Se-seong, reporter at Hankyung.com sesung@hankyung.com