International Oil Prices Soar as Middle East Crisis Reignites; Refinery Stocks Surge Together

With renewed Middle Eastern tensions sparked by Israel and Iran, global oil prices are surging, causing domestic oil refinery stocks to soar across the board.

As of 9:13 a.m. on the 16th, Korea Petroleum was trading at ₩20,250, up 18.01% from the previous trading day. Heung-gu Oil (21.05%), Jungang Enervis (11.01%), and Daesung Energy are also surging.

Since Israel launched a preemptive airstrike against Iran on the 13th (local time), both sides have been exchanging strikes day and night, marking the third day of hostilities.

On the first day of fighting, the ICE Futures Exchange saw the near-month Brent Crude futures closing at $74.23 per barrel, up 7.0% from the previous session. The near-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $72.98 per barrel, surging 7.3%.

This is the largest single-day increase since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, causing energy prices to spike.

Experts analyze that if Iran moves to blockade the Strait of Hormuz due to escalating full-scale conflict, international oil prices could climb even higher.

The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, is a key shipping route through which 20% (20.9 million barrels per day) of global maritime oil distribution passes. Currently, Korea relies on the Middle East for over 70% of its crude oil and over 30% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG), with most shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Byungjin Hwang, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "Beyond Iranian crude oil, if supply uncertainty among major Middle Eastern exporting countries intensifies, short-term upward volatility in global oil prices is inevitable," and predicted, "If Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions unfold into a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, supply uncertainty among key oil exporters will escalate further, and in the short term, international oil prices could break not only $80 per barrel, but also $90 and even $100."

Jeong-dong Noh, Hankyung.com reporter dong2@hankyung.com