After Trump Says 'Evacuate'... Probability of U.S. Military Involvement in Israel-Iran Conflict Surges
Uk Jin
Summary
- It was reported that the probability of U.S. military intervention in the Iran situation surged to 60% on the decentralized exchange Polymarket.
- It was revealed that after former President Trump mentioned 'immediate evacuation from Tehran,' the probability of U.S. military intervention jumped sharply from about 40%.
- The outlook for easing tensions between Israel and Iran was dramatically reversed in less than a day.
The situation appears to have reversed less than a day after optimism emerged about easing tensions between Israel and Iran. The likelihood of U.S. military involvement has surged.
As of 7:58 a.m. KST on the 17th, the probability of 'the U.S. military intervening in the Iran situation before August' on the decentralized exchange Polymarket stands at 60%.
Even earlier this morning, the probability of U.S. military involvement was only about 40%. However, after former President Donald Trump announced on his social media (SNS) at 7:30 a.m. that people should "immediately evacuate from Tehran (the capital of Iran)," the probability of involvement sharply increased.
Uk Jin
wook9629@bloomingbit.ioH3LLO, World! I am Uk Jin.
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