'If Trump slips up, the US economy could be wrecked'... Serious warnings arise

US President Donald Trump is showing signs of getting involved in the Middle East war, intensifying the economic shock.

According to 'Yahoo Finance', a US economic portal, on the 17th (local time), if Trump is fully involved in the Middle East war, there is a high possibility that the US economy will fall into a recession amid mounting inflationary pressures from tariff hikes.

Currently, despite the tariff bomb, US inflation is well under control. This is because import companies have increased imports massively before the tariff bomb to secure sufficient inventory. However, if the inventory is depleted, US inflation is expected to rise in earnest. Experts believe this phenomenon will begin to appear in July.

If international oil prices also surge due to the Middle East war in this situation, it is anticipated to further fuel US inflation. The US is likely to face a triple wave of inflationary pressures: △ upward pressure on inflation due to tariff hikes △ a surge in international oil prices from the Middle East war △ the advent of the summer driving season, etc.

If poorly intervened in the Middle East dispute, the US could be dragged into the quagmire of the region. Moreover, Trump must complete trade negotiations with at least 15 countries by July 9. Trump was supposed to settle some of them at the G-7 summit currently being held in Canada, but as the Iran-Israel conflict intensified, Trump urgently returned to the United States on the 16th, delaying trade negotiations and heightening related uncertainties.

Meanwhile, US stock markets closed lower. On this day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the New York Stock Exchange ended at 42,215.80, down 299.29 points (-0.7%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 dropped 50.39 points (-0.84%) to close at 5982.72, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index declined 180.12 points (-0.91%) to finish at 19,521.09.

International oil prices soared as Middle East tensions persisted. On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent Crude futures for near-month delivery closed at $76.54 per barrel, up $3.22 (4.4%) from the previous day. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near-month futures settled at $74.84 per barrel, up $3.07 (4.28%) from the previous session.

Song-ryul Lee, Hankyung.com reporter yisr0203@hankyung.com