Probability of Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz before July drops to 29%

There is rising speculation that Iran may blockade the Strait of Hormuz as a retaliatory measure against the United States' airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities the previous day. However, on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, expectations are that Iran will not blockade the Strait of Hormuz in the short term.

As of 10:46 a.m. KST on the 23rd, Polymarket shows that the probability of Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz before July is 29% in the relevant betting market. This reflects the anticipation that Iran is unlikely to carry out the blockade within this week. At the same time, on Polymarket, the probability of a blockade by Iran before the end of this year is recorded at a high 49%.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, with about a quarter of the global maritime oil shipments passing through it. In the case of liquefied natural gas (LNG), one-fifth of the world’s seaborne supply goes through this strait.

Due to its relatively shallow depth, there are only limited navigable routes for large tankers, most of which must pass through Iranian territorial waters, effectively giving Iran control over the strait.

Iran's parliament (Majlis) has already resolved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. strike on its nuclear facilities. The final decision authority, however, lies with Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).