"Bitcoin·Ethereum, Major Volatility Coming in July?…Options Market Sees Expanding Bullish and Bearish Forecasts"

As the volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) significantly decreased last month, movements in the options market suggest that participants are preparing for the possibility of major price swings this month.

On the 4th (local time), crypto-specialized media The Block quoted a report from the on-chain options exchange Derive.xyz, stating, "Despite Middle East military conflicts and policy uncertainties from the Fed in June, the 30-day implied volatility (IV) of BTC and ETH fell from 44% to 36%, and from 68% to 60%, respectively," and added, "Now, there are expectations that the previously suppressed volatility could erupt in July."

According to Derive.xyz, for Bitcoin options contracts expiring on the 25th, nearly half of the total open interest (OI) is concentrated in call options at $130,000–$135,000 and put options at $85,000–$90,000. This suggests that market participants are keeping both upward and downward possibilities open.

However, the Fed's interest rate policy could be a factor that limits the expansion of volatility. Valentin Fournier, a chief researcher at BRN, explained, "With US June employment figures beating expectations, the probability of the Fed maintaining its current rate has risen substantially," and, "The market now sees a 95% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold rates steady at its July meeting."

Relatively, the optimism surrounding Ethereum is even clearer. Derive.xyz noted that nearly 80% of open interest in July ETH Ethereum options is concentrated above $3,000, with 30% targeting prices over $3,500.

The Block also reported, "Robinhood's planned launch of tokenized stocks and news of Arbitrum-based Layer 2 development are reinforcing a ‘real-world narrative’ for Ethereum," adding that, "A ‘Big July’ led by ETH could unfold."