What are the probabilities of reciprocal tariff negotiations by country?... South Korea is optimistic at 65%

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he intends to wrap up trade negotiations by the 9th, and South Korea’s probability of concluding tariff negotiations with the United States stands at 65%.

According to the decentralized prediction market 'Polymarket', in the betting market on ‘Which country will conclude tariff negotiations with the United States before August?’, South Korea is currently showing a significantly high probability at 65%. In addition, India (79%), Canada (73%), and the European Union (61%) also record probabilities of over 50% for concluding tariff negotiations.

However, the probability of concluding tariff negotiations with China—which could have the greatest impact on the global economy—was predicted at 24%. Meanwhile, Japan (45%), Mexico (31%), Germany (14%), France (12%), Australia (24%), and Brazil (36%) are also showing relatively lower probabilities.

Previously, President Trump met with reporters at the airport before boarding the presidential aircraft (Air Force One) to return to the White House in Washington, D.C., from the State of New Jersey on the 6th (local time), and stated, "I plan to send the letters on Monday; it could be 12 countries, maybe 15 countries."

The '15 countries' mentioned by President Trump that day is a slight increase compared to his previous remarks where the target countries for the letters were said to be 12. He said, "It might be about 15 countries, and the letters will be sent on Monday (the 7th), and some will be sent on Tuesday (the 8th) and Wednesday (the 9th)."

President Trump particularly said, "We have reached agreement with (several countries). So we have a combination of letter-sending and several settlements, and with some countries, negotiations have been concluded." When asked whether tariff rates could change on July 9 or August 1, he responded, "I think we will finish negotiations with most countries by July 9. Either a letter or a deal."