"Spread of Bitcoin Options Betting on $200,000 by Year-End... Actual Odds Below 3%"

While the number of call option contracts predicting Bitcoin (BTC) will surpass $200,000 by the end of the year is increasing, an analysis indicates the actual probability calculated by the market is less than 3%.

According to Cointelegraph, a media outlet specializing in digital assets (cryptocurrencies), as of the December 26 expiration date, open interest for Bitcoin options totals $6.45 billion for call options and $2.36 billion for put options. The outlet noted, “Call options are in the majority, but some high strike prices are considered unrealistic,” adding, “The chance of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end is expected to be below 3%.”

Experts believe that a large number of high-priced call options does not necessarily indicate a forecast for a 70% price surge. In practice, traders often use structured strategies such as ‘call diagonal spreads’ or ‘inverse call butterflies’ to reduce risk and target profits within specific price ranges.

On the other hand, there are also bearish views. The put option size in the $50,000~$80,000 range amounts to about $900 million. According to the Black-Scholes model—a model for valuing options in financial markets—the probability of a $140,000 call option expiring successfully is 21%, and for a $200,000 call option, it is below 3%.

Meanwhile, prediction market platform Polymarket sees the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 within the year at 13%. This is higher than the options market estimates but still considered quite low.