Has Bitcoin's '4-year cycle theory' ended... "The longest bull market in history is underway"

On the 14th (local time), Bitcoin's price surpassed $124,000 during intraday trading to set a new all-time high. Amid this, some in the market suggest that the established '4-year cycle theory' is being put to the test.

On this day, Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, said on his X account, "The fourth quarter of this year will be the turning point in Bitcoin's price movement," adding, "The influx of traditional financial capital may have fundamentally changed the structure of the market."

Consorti stated, "Bitcoin broke through $123,700 and hit a new all-time high, and although it experienced a slight correction afterward, the upward trend continues." He also assessed, "After nearly a month of sideways movement between $118,000 and $120,000, buying pressure eventually prevailed." He added, "When Wall Street returns after summer vacation and expectations of a Fed rate cut converge, all risk assets are rebounding."

Consorti especially noted that this bull market is structurally different from previous ones. He said, "Currently, it's the longest bull market in Bitcoin's history, with growth lasting 21 months," and remarked, "This suggests that the conventional 4-year cycle theory may be shaken." He continued, "If there is a sharp surge and spike by the end of the year, the 4-year cycle could remain intact; otherwise, the cycle structure may have changed forever."

Consorti analyzed that the key to this market structure change is a shift in the main buyer. He explained, "Large capital from traditional asset managers, pension funds, and university endowments are now entering the market in earnest through ETFs," and said, "These are not short-term profit-seeking traders, but long-term investors managing portfolios over several years or decades."

He continued, "Now, some companies are adopting a strategy of including Bitcoin on their balance sheets and vowing 'never to sell.'" He analyzed, "Rather than the repeated extremes of sharp surges and crashes like in the past, a new trend of steady growth and mild corrections is emerging." He added, "With supply locked in the hands of long-term holders and a deepening market capital base, volatility is reduced while upside potential actually grows as the structure changes."