[Analysis] "Bitcoin May See ±2% Volatility Before and After Powell's Jackson Hole Remarks"

As Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed (the U.S. central bank), prepares to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, there are predictions that Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a test of short-term volatility.

According to CoinDesk, a media outlet specializing in crypto assets (cryptocurrencies), Pulkit Goyal, Head of Trading at Orbit Markets, an options specialist firm for cryptocurrencies, analyzed, "The options market reflects the possibility of Bitcoin moving about ±2% before and after Powell's remarks."

In recent days, Bitcoin's short-term implied volatility (IV) reached 49% annualized, the highest since the end of May. This suggests a potential 2.5% price swing over 24 hours—a level that far exceeds the average daily range (1.18%) of the past 30 days.

Goyal noted, "If the speech is not as dovish (favoring monetary easing) as the market expects and is instead neutral, there is a high chance of a short-term correction. As a result, demand for put options is rising," he said.

As of 20:00 on this date, Bitcoin is trading at around $112,295, and on the daily chart, it has failed to break through the $114,000 resistance level. The media outlet commented, "This is similar to phases when medium-term corrections occurred in previous cycles."

Meanwhile, Powell's speech is scheduled for 23:00 on the 22nd (KST). Market participants are watching closely to see whether the Fed will signal a rate cut directly, or maintain a more cautious stance.