"Abandoned Tesla and switched"…Seohak investors who scooped up 1 trillion won worth 'scream'

Seohak investors who bought 1 trillion won worth of Circle 'hit by a sudden blow'

"Returns plunge -34%"

The returns of Seohak investors who swept up crypto-related stocks are plunging. Major stocks are weak as investment sentiment has weakened due to concerns such as a US recession and inflation. Customers holding Circle and Bitmine are showing mostly negative returns.

○ Average return -34.36%…investors 'cry out'

<Seohak investors' net purchases TOP5 stocks>

On the 4th, according to the Korea Securities Depository, the stock most net-bought by domestic investors over the past three months (June 4–September 3) was Circle. The net purchase amount during the period reached approximately 1.068 trillion won ($767.79 million). The second most net-bought was also a crypto-related stock, Bitmine ($508.74 million; about 708 billion won). The third was UnitedHealth Group ($394.17 million; about 548.3 billion won), and fourth was the "iShares 0-3 Month U.S. Treasury" (SGOV) ($363.80 million; about 506 billion won). Coinbase ($333.20 million; about 463.5 billion won) ranked fifth.

With Tesla, a popular Seohak name this year, underperforming, interest shifted to crypto-related stocks. The crypto-related stocks also surged around the passage of the stablecoin regulation 'Genius bill' in July, which stimulated investor sentiment. Circle, a stablecoin issuer that listed on June 5 (local time), jumped 168.48% on its first trading day and rose another 29.40% the next day. It climbed more than threefold within a month after listing. Bitcoin miner Bitmine also surged about ninefold (888.47%) over four trading days from June 30 to July 3 (local time) after news it was making Ethereum a major asset. However, the mood changed sharply from August. In mid-last month, the US July producer price index (PPI) rise exceeded expectations, weakening hopes for a US rate cut. As hopes for rate cuts retreated, crypto-related stocks also turned down across the board. Circle and Bitmine are down about 50%–60% from their July highs. Coinbase also fell nearly 30% over the same period.

Losses for crypto investing customers have also grown. According to Mirae Asset Securities, as of holdings on the 3rd, the average return for customers invested in Circle was -34.36%. Excluding UnitedHealth (2.20%) and the short-term US Treasury ETF (-0.12%), Bitmine (-15.39%) and Coinbase (-6.83%) are in negative territory.

○ Could there be a year-end rally?

Crypto-related stocks are expected to remain volatile until the US central bank (Fed) decides whether to cut its policy rate on the 17th of this month. The underlying crypto prices could show temporary weakness. Yang Hyun-kyung, a researcher at iM Securities, said, "The main factor determining Bitcoin's price is global liquidity, and with fund rebalancing and increased caution on monetary policy, September typically shows seasonal weakness in Bitcoin." The US consumer price index (CPI) to be released on the 11th is also cited as a variable.

Some analysts say that with the likelihood of rate cuts rising again, a year-end crypto rally is expected. According to CME FedWatch on the 3rd (local time), federal funds futures priced a 25bp (bp=0.01% point) cut in September at a 95.4% probability. This rose from 92.7% near the previous day's close. The recent expansion of crypto businesses by the Trump family has also been positive for investor sentiment. 'American Bitcoin,' a bitcoin mining company in which two sons of US President Donald Trump are major shareholders, listed on the US stock market on the 3rd and at one point jumped 110.4% intraday. Earlier, US crypto exchange Blyss also entered the New York market. Its stock closed at $68 on its first trading day, up 83.8% from the offering price ($37). Crypto exchange Gemini is also pursuing a Nasdaq listing, which is expected to lift year-end investor sentiment.

Reporter Ara Jo rrang123@hankyung.com